Pacers vs. 76ers: O/U 230.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 74¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Over74¢Under26¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$749.61

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 74¢

+44% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over74%

Under26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,910

Combined PnL+$780.8

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,812

Combined PnL-$31.19

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA marvelousmarvin	Overavg 52¢	$1.3K	$2.0K	+$718.07	31% 23-51 (74)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 48¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$18.86	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 43.7¢	$166.82	$186.68	+$19.86	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 49.1¢	$214.64	$147.31	+$54.8	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.1¢	$67.55	$101.81	+$35.77
└ Under leg	Underavg 19.2¢	$33.58	$45.49	+$19.03
SU suntori	Overavg 55.4¢	$76.17	$101.77	+$34.17	46% 3336-3878 (7214)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$53.39	$43.54	-$9.85	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
NO NotJump<$100	Overavg 51¢	$22.06	$23.7	+$1.65	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$63.05	$23.64	-$39.41	48% 720-766 (1486)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 38¢	$13.12	$19.34	+$6.22	47% 1204-1385 (2589)
JO JoeyAroyyOO<$100	Overavg 39¢	$1.95	$2.8	+$0.85	48% 131-144 (275)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 60¢	$3	$2.2	-$0.8	48% 2576-2780 (5356)

marvelousmarvin

Over

Invested

$1,310.16

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$718.07

Record

31%

23-51 (74)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$1,282.05

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$18.86

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$166.82

Value

$186.68

PnL

+$19.86

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$214.64

Value

$147.31

PnL

+$54.8

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

Both legs:

Over$67.5549.1¢+$35.77

Under$33.5819.2¢+$19.03

suntori

Over

Invested

$76.17

Value

$101.77

PnL

+$34.17

Record

46%

3336-3878 (7214)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$53.39

Value

$43.54

PnL

-$9.85

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

NotJump<$100

Over

Invested

$22.06

Value

$23.7

PnL

+$1.65

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$63.05

Value

$23.64

PnL

-$39.41

Record

48%

720-766 (1486)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$13.12

Value

$19.34

PnL

+$6.22

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

JoeyAroyyOO<$100

Over

Invested

$1.95

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.85

Record

48%

131-144 (275)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.8

Record

48%

2576-2780 (5356)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.