Spread: 76ers (-11.5)

11 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (58%) · Pacers at 83¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 15

76ers17¢Pacers83¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 58%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.6K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

59.5¢ → 83¢

+40% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

11 of 19 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers17%

Pacers83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers11 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares12,058

Combined PnL+$1.7K

76ers8 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares9,036

Combined PnL-$148.67

Pacers — 58%76ers — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Pacers) and the top 1000 (12 on 76ers) disagree here.

ctr76ers 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedPacers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 100076ers 67% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2920d1023AD811c4321572CBD970398D9190f978-1775942251723	Pacersavg 57¢	$4.7K	$5.8K	+$1.1K	41% 9-13 (22)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	76ersavg 43¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$70.17	49% 2881-2944 (5825)
RN1ARB<$100	Pacersavg 67¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$67.28	54% 6080-5160 (11240)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 67¢	$690.07	$865.35	+$175.28
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 31.8¢	$488.13	$245.57	-$242.56
TA takeormakeARB<$100	76ersavg 43.4¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$215.5	57% 3683-2777 (6460)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 43.4¢	$871.16	$671.67	-$199.49
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 69.2¢	$405.57	$389.56	-$16.01
JU justaluckydude	Pacersavg 52.3¢	$649.14	$1.0K	+$355.66	50% 663-662 (1325)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Pacersavg 77¢	$770	$830	+$60	58% 4036-2957 (6993)
FL Flaznorp	Pacersavg 69.2¢	$762.27	$688.36	+$76	48% 4769-5064 (9833)
TO topdogbigboi	Pacersavg 69.2¢	$300.42	$319.08	+$18.66	39% 1625-2578 (4203)
MI micky456	Pacersavg 59.6¢	$116.43	$158.34	+$41.91	48% 650-715 (1365)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	76ersavg 21.1¢	$2.2K	$128.25	+$68.38	55% 1995-1659 (3654)
NO NotJumpCTR	76ersavg 44¢	$110	$105	-$5	50% 1182-1198 (2380)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	76ersavg 34¢	$126.28	$97.65	-$28.63	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 79.1¢	$58.28	$59.65	+$1.37
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 34¢	$68	$38	-$30
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	76ersavg 57¢	$85.5	$78.75	-$6.75	48% 646-702 (1348)
VE VenusianCTR	76ersavg 31.9¢	$141.82	$75.51	-$66.31	38% 1404-2275 (3679)
PA Pan9X<$100	Pacersavg 63.5¢	$68.14	$73.54	+$20.44	50% 2214-2221 (4435)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	76ersavg 36.9¢	$40.96	$36.59	-$4.37	46% 1216-1411 (2627)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	76ersavg 31.9¢	$67.36	$35.94	-$31.42	38% 1379-2246 (3625)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	76ersavg 34¢	$66.06	$33.03	-$33.03	38% 1406-2304 (3710)
38 38791873984189<$100	Pacersavg 54¢	$26.53	$31.76	+$5.23	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Pacersavg 69¢	$21.78	$12.6	+$2.67	48% 2617-2816 (5433)
LR lryyy<$100	Pacersavg 65¢	$3.25	$3.9	+$0.65	46% 1011-1210 (2221)
US User7429<$100	Pacersavg 69¢	$3.45	$3.7	+$0.25	43% 435-573 (1008)

0x2920d1023AD811c4321572CBD970398D9190f978-1775942251723

Pacers

Invested

$4,709.84

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

41%

9-13 (22)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

76ers

Invested

$3,017.42

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$70.17

Record

49%

2881-2944 (5825)

RN1ARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$1,178.2

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$67.28

Record

54%

6080-5160 (11240)

Both legs:

Pacers$690.0767¢+$175.28

76ers$488.1331.8¢-$242.56

takeormakeARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$1,276.73

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$215.5

Record

57%

3683-2777 (6460)

Both legs:

76ers$871.1643.4¢-$199.49

Pacers$405.5769.2¢-$16.01

justaluckydude

Pacers

Invested

$649.14

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$355.66

Record

50%

663-662 (1325)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Pacers

Invested

$770

Value

$830

PnL

+$60

Record

58%

4036-2957 (6993)

Flaznorp

Pacers

Invested

$762.27

Value

$688.36

PnL

+$76

Record

48%

4769-5064 (9833)

topdogbigboi

Pacers

Invested

$300.42

Value

$319.08

PnL

+$18.66

Record

39%

1625-2578 (4203)

micky456

Pacers

Invested

$116.43

Value

$158.34

PnL

+$41.91

Record

48%

650-715 (1365)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

76ers

Invested

$2,238.73

Value

$128.25

PnL

+$68.38

Record

55%

1995-1659 (3654)

NotJumpCTR

76ers

Invested

$110

Value

$105

PnL

-$5

Record

50%

1182-1198 (2380)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$126.28

Value

$97.65

PnL

-$28.63

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

Both legs:

Pacers$58.2879.1¢+$1.37

76ers$6834¢-$30

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$85.5

Value

$78.75

PnL

-$6.75

Record

48%

646-702 (1348)

VenusianCTR

76ers

Invested

$141.82

Value

$75.51

PnL

-$66.31

Record

38%

1404-2275 (3679)

Pan9X<$100

Pacers

Invested

$68.14

Value

$73.54

PnL

+$20.44

Record

50%

2214-2221 (4435)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$40.96

Value

$36.59

PnL

-$4.37

Record

46%

1216-1411 (2627)

LimousinCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$67.36

Value

$35.94

PnL

-$31.42

Record

38%

1379-2246 (3625)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$66.06

Value

$33.03

PnL

-$33.03

Record

38%

1406-2304 (3710)

38791873984189<$100

Pacers

Invested

$26.53

Value

$31.76

PnL

+$5.23

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

ferdinand2<$100

Pacers

Invested

$21.78

Value

$12.6

PnL

+$2.67

Record

48%

2617-2816 (5433)

lryyy<$100

Pacers

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$0.65

Record

46%

1011-1210 (2221)

User7429<$100

Pacers

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$0.25

Record

43%

435-573 (1008)

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

11 of 19 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Pacers) and the top 1000 (12 on 76ers) disagree here.

ctr76ers 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedPacers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 100076ers 67% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.