Rockets vs. Suns: O/U 224.5

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (53%) · Under at 86¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 8

Over14¢Under86¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 85.5¢

+61% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares8,052

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Over7 traders

Total Value$808.46

Total Shares2,051

Combined PnL-$114.71

Under — 53%Over — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 51.7¢	$1.5K	$2.5K	+$1.0K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
MA marvelousmarvin	Underavg 53.3¢	$725.86	$1.2K	+$466.47	56% 41-32 (73)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 54¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$7.09	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 53.4¢	$703.99	$680.17	-$23.82	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Underavg 52¢	$499.99	$495.18	-$4.81	49% 101-107 (208)
VI vibing123CTR	Overavg 48.2¢	$491.47	$494.06	+$2.59	52% 1674-1564 (3238)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 50¢	$279.13	$409.67	+$130.54	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Overavg 50¢	$400	$200	+$0	— 1-0 (1)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 28.4¢	$127.34	$100.47	-$26.87	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.6¢	$44.02	$69.66	+$25.64
└ Over leg	Overavg 28.4¢	$83.32	$30.81	-$52.51
dips.<$100	Underavg 96¢	$89.28	$83.24	-$6.05	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 8.4¢	$41.69	$54.82	+$13.13	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 46.7¢	$126.07	$33.75	-$92.32	53% 12378-10927 (23305)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$47	$12.5	-$34.5	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 31.2¢	$42.01	$8.48	-$3.71	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 47.5¢	$4.75	$4.85	+$0.1	52% 9022-8174 (17196)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Underavg 95¢	$4.75	$4.48	-$0.28	58% 3248-2345 (5593)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,537.05

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

marvelousmarvin

Under

Invested

$725.86

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$466.47

Record

56%

41-32 (73)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$1,050.67

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$7.09

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$703.99

Value

$680.17

PnL

-$23.82

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

JoeyAroyyOO

Under

Invested

$499.99

Value

$495.18

PnL

-$4.81

Record

49%

101-107 (208)

vibing123CTR

Over

Invested

$491.47

Value

$494.06

PnL

+$2.59

Record

52%

1674-1564 (3238)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$279.13

Value

$409.67

PnL

+$130.54

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Over

Invested

$400

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-0 (1)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$127.34

Value

$100.47

PnL

-$26.87

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

Both legs:

Under$44.0256.6¢+$25.64

Over$83.3228.4¢-$52.51

dips.<$100

Under

Invested

$89.28

Value

$83.24

PnL

-$6.05

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41.69

Value

$54.82

PnL

+$13.13

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$126.07

Value

$33.75

PnL

-$92.32

Record

53%

12378-10927 (23305)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47

Value

$12.5

PnL

-$34.5

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$42.01

Value

$8.48

PnL

-$3.71

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.85

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Under

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.48

PnL

-$0.28

Record

58%

3248-2345 (5593)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.