Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5

14 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 71¢ · $49K held · ended Nov 14

Over29¢Under71¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$49.2K

Combined PnL

$5.9K

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 71.3¢

+36% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

14 of 28 top traders (50%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over29%

Under71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under14 traders

Total Value$32.1K

Total Shares44,820

Combined PnL+$8.3K

Over14 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares12,512

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (27 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 68% · 19

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 52% · 27

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603	Underavg 54¢	$11.7K	$15.4K	+$3.7K	— 10-8 (18)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 47.9¢	$9.9K	$9.8K	-$146.87	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.3¢	$4.9K	$6.7K	+$1.9K
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.9¢	$5.0K	$3.0K	$-2.0K
nehcnehc	Underavg 50¢	$4.7K	$6.7K	+$2.0K	34% 44-84 (128)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 49.7¢	$3.2K	$4.3K	+$1.2K	53% 1186-1032 (2218)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Underavg 48¢	$1.3K	$2.0K	+$636.73	59% 491-339 (830)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 50.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$26.31	59% 3728-2540 (6268)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.2¢	$640	$887.5	+$247.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.2¢	$640.25	$366.44	-$273.81
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 50.6¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$79.43	36% 319-557 (876)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.2¢	$573.04	$794.68	+$221.64
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.6¢	$696.25	$395.18	-$301.07
RN1	Underavg 65.5¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$16.25	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 37.7¢	$969.81	$938.91	-$30.89	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.8¢	$428.84	$594.69	+$165.85
└ Over leg	Overavg 37.7¢	$540.97	$344.22	-$196.75
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 49.2¢	$8.1K	$832.04	-$575.67	51% 499-470 (969)
AN Anon455	Underavg 49¢	$595.57	$798.56	+$202.99	50% 368-373 (741)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.1K	$678.09	-$455.07	21% 158-579 (737)
MaoZeDonKCTR	Overavg 51.3¢	$1.2K	$672.28	-$527.72	53% 25-22 (47)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 51¢	$408	$568	+$160	23% 294-994 (1288)
poshposhCTR	Overavg 46¢	$690	$431.11	-$258.89	48% 1014-1101 (2115)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 71¢	$348.41	$348.41	+$0	51% 470-452 (922)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 59¢	$701.21	$330.6	+$64.43	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
TX txwd9991CTR	Overavg 48¢	$529.2	$316.86	-$212.34	6% 5-82 (87)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$238.05	$288.56	+$50.51	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$135.22	$188.3	+$53.09
└ Over leg	Overavg 29.5¢	$102.83	$100.26	-$2.58
38 38791873984189	Underavg 48.1¢	$1.5K	$220.31	+$229.74	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
PA Pan9X	Underavg 48¢	$174.63	$144.43	+$42.37	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Overavg 48¢	$240	$143.7	-$96.3	34% 67-133 (200)
SU suntoriCTR	Overavg 28.8¢	$193.15	$129.64	-$62.04	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 47¢	$133.3	$116.85	-$16.45	37% 841-1416 (2257)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47¢	$39.3	$59.37	+$20.07
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$94	$57.48	-$36.52
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Overavg 45¢	$141.75	$90.53	-$51.22	70% 1714-741 (2455)

0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603

Under

Invested

$11,742.1

Value

$15.4K

PnL

+$3.7K

Record

—

10-8 (18)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$9,919.76

Value

$9.8K

PnL

-$146.87

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

Both legs:

Under$4,872.1551.3¢+$1.9K

Over$5,047.647.9¢$-2.0K

nehcnehc

Under

Invested

$4,727.5

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

34%

44-84 (128)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$3,162.91

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

53%

1186-1032 (2218)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Under

Invested

$1,328.82

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$636.73

Record

59%

491-339 (830)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,280.25

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$26.31

Record

59%

3728-2540 (6268)

Both legs:

Under$64051.2¢+$247.5

Over$640.2550.2¢-$273.81

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,269.29

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$79.43

Record

36%

319-557 (876)

Both legs:

Under$573.0451.2¢+$221.64

Over$696.2550.6¢-$301.07

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,156.77

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$16.25

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$969.81

Value

$938.91

PnL

-$30.89

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

Both legs:

Under$428.8454.8¢+$165.85

Over$540.9737.7¢-$196.75

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$8,082.83

Value

$832.04

PnL

-$575.67

Record

51%

499-470 (969)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$595.57

Value

$798.56

PnL

+$202.99

Record

50%

368-373 (741)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$1,133.16

Value

$678.09

PnL

-$455.07

Record

21%

158-579 (737)

MaoZeDonKCTR

Over

Invested

$1,200

Value

$672.28

PnL

-$527.72

Record

53%

25-22 (47)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$408

Value

$568

PnL

+$160

Record

23%

294-994 (1288)

poshposhCTR

Over

Invested

$690

Value

$431.11

PnL

-$258.89

Record

48%

1014-1101 (2115)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$348.41

Value

$348.41

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

470-452 (922)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$701.21

Value

$330.6

PnL

+$64.43

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

txwd9991CTR

Over

Invested

$529.2

Value

$316.86

PnL

-$212.34

Record

5-82 (87)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$238.05

Value

$288.56

PnL

+$50.51

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

Both legs:

Under$135.2251¢+$53.09

Over$102.8329.5¢-$2.58

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$1,500.53

Value

$220.31

PnL

+$229.74

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$174.63

Value

$144.43

PnL

+$42.37

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

Bagwell306CTR

Over

Invested

$240

Value

$143.7

PnL

-$96.3

Record

34%

67-133 (200)

suntoriCTR

Over

Invested

$193.15

Value

$129.64

PnL

-$62.04

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$133.3

Value

$116.85

PnL

-$16.45

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

Both legs:

Invested

$141.75

Value

$90.53

PnL

-$51.22

Record

70%

1714-741 (2455)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

14 of 28 top traders (50%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (27 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 68% · 19

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 52% · 27

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.3%

71.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.