Spread: Spurs (-20.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (40%) · Spurs at 85¢ · $548 held · ended Nov 14

Spurs85¢Warriors15¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 40%

Total Value

$548.46

Combined PnL

-$16.74

Smart Money Entry

73.6¢ → 84.5¢

+15% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs85%

Warriors16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs4 traders

Total Value$465.51

Total Shares589

Combined PnL+$31.62

Warriors6 traders

Total Value$82.74

Total Shares515

Combined PnL-$48.36

Spurs — 40%Warriors — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Spurs) and the top 1000 (9 on Warriors) disagree here.

ctrWarriors 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Spursavg 76.6¢	$377.19	$389.02	+$11.83	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
RN1<$100	Spursavg 62¢	$53.57	$68.25	+$14.68	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 22.5¢	$98.3	$67.82	-$30.48	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 37¢	$10.73	$6.09	-$4.64	59% 3410-2403 (5813)
GH ghorrock<$100	Spursavg 32¢	$1.74	$4.29	+$2.55	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
LI Limousin<$100	Spursavg 28¢	$1.4	$3.95	+$2.55	36% 883-1569 (2452)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 72¢	$12.86	$3.75	-$9.11	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 22.4¢	$4.71	$3.26	-$1.46	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 52¢	$3.49	$1.41	-$2.08	51% 470-452 (922)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 38¢	$1	$0.41	-$0.59	47% 489-544 (1033)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Spurs

Invested

$377.19

Value

$389.02

PnL

+$11.83

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

RN1<$100

Spurs

Invested

$53.57

Value

$68.25

PnL

+$14.68

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$98.3

Value

$67.82

PnL

-$30.48

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$10.73

Value

$6.09

PnL

-$4.64

Record

59%

3410-2403 (5813)

ghorrock<$100

Spurs

Invested

$1.74

Value

$4.29

PnL

+$2.55

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

Limousin<$100

Spurs

Invested

$1.4

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$2.55

Record

36%

883-1569 (2452)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$12.86

Value

$3.75

PnL

-$9.11

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$4.71

Value

$3.26

PnL

-$1.46

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$3.49

Value

$1.41

PnL

-$2.08

Record

51%

470-452 (922)

micky456CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$0.59

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Spurs) and the top 1000 (9 on Warriors) disagree here.

ctrWarriors 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.