Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (65%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 225.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 35¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 13

Over65¢Under35¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

$864.82

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 35¢

-33% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 35%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over65%

Under35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares5,963

Combined PnL+$976.43

Under6 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares5,906

Combined PnL-$111.62

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH shaillakhani	Overavg 45¢	$2.3K	$3.3K	+$987.48	1% 3-198 (201)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 55¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$0.09	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 55¢	$1.1K	$846.14	+$5.25	53% 852-766 (1618)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Overavg 48¢	$363.32	$351.97	-$11.35	48% 581-618 (1199)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 52¢	$365.86	$239.22	-$126.64	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 20.4¢	$71.5	$85.89	+$14.39	54% 1122-947 (2069)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$26.13	$27.37	+$1.24	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$18.2	$12.25	-$5.95	49% 1386-1434 (2820)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 40¢	$2	$2.2	+$0.2	53% 1117-973 (2090)
JO JoeyAroyyOO<$100	Overavg 41¢	$1.41	$1.51	+$0.1	48% 116-124 (240)

shaillakhani

Over

Invested

$2,338.78

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$987.48

Record

3-198 (201)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$1,748.69

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$0.09

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,109.69

Value

$846.14

PnL

+$5.25

Record

53%

852-766 (1618)

Multicoloured-Serf

Over

Invested

$363.32

Value

$351.97

PnL

-$11.35

Record

48%

581-618 (1199)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$365.86

Value

$239.22

PnL

-$126.64

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$71.5

Value

$85.89

PnL

+$14.39

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.13

Value

$27.37

PnL

+$1.24

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.2

Value

$12.25

PnL

-$5.95

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

JoeyAroyyOO<$100

Over

Invested

$1.41

Value

$1.51

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

116-124 (240)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 35%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.2%

35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$169.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

269.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.