Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 243.5

6 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Over (35%) · Over at 59¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 15

Over59¢Under41¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 35%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

-$467.35

Smart Money Entry

57.1¢ → 59¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 17 top traders (35%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares12,302

Combined PnL-$503.87

Under11 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,511

Combined PnL+$36.52

Over — 35%Under — 65%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH shaillakhani	Overavg 57.3¢	$5.4K	$5.2K	-$168.91	6% 14-208 (222)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 45.6¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$79.73	49% 430-445 (875)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.6¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$116.58
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.4¢	$785.79	$822.64	+$36.85
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 54.5¢	$665.95	$703.19	+$37.24	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 39.4¢	$511.89	$537.27	+$105.52	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 65¢	$579.13	$366.91	-$37.22	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
└ Over leg	Overavg 65¢	$325	$287.5	-$37.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 37¢	$69.13	$79.41	+$0.28
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 65.7¢	$2.7K	$361.03	-$325.02	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
MI micky456	Overavg 67¢	$288.77	$247.98	-$40.79	47% 590-656 (1246)
TA takeormake	Overavg 46¢	$219.88	$203.15	-$16.73	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Underavg 57¢	$185.56	$188.48	+$2.92	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
SU suitcase6628CTR	Underavg 41¢	$791.23	$168.09	-$54.14	65% 668-360 (1028)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 38¢	$132.13	$147.88	+$15.75	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 54.9¢	$51.09	$55.79	+$4.7	46% 877-1050 (1927)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 32¢	$41.27	$51.6	+$10.33	58% 3760-2730 (6490)
PA Pan9XCTR	Underavg 59¢	$107.75	$45.52	-$45.57	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$12.68	$12.9	+$0.22	41% 1108-1568 (2676)
balthazarCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$6.6	$12	+$5.4	43% 5158-6923 (12081)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 57.5¢	$11.5	$11.8	+$0.3	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$6.27	$8.08	+$1.8	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$8.17	$7.79	-$0.38	37% 1155-1966 (3121)

shaillakhani

Over

Invested

$5,400

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$168.91

Record

14-208 (222)

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,277.01

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$79.73

Record

49%

430-445 (875)

Both legs:

Under$1,491.2245.6¢-$116.58

Over$785.7955.4¢+$36.85

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$665.95

Value

$703.19

PnL

+$37.24

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$511.89

Value

$537.27

PnL

+$105.52

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$579.13

Value

$366.91

PnL

-$37.22

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

Both legs:

Over$32565¢-$37.5

Under$69.1337¢+$0.28

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$2,702.12

Value

$361.03

PnL

-$325.02

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

micky456

Over

Invested

$288.77

Value

$247.98

PnL

-$40.79

Record

47%

590-656 (1246)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$219.88

Value

$203.15

PnL

-$16.73

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

topdogbigboiCTR

Under

Invested

$185.56

Value

$188.48

PnL

+$2.92

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

suitcase6628CTR

Under

Invested

$791.23

Value

$168.09

PnL

-$54.14

Record

65%

668-360 (1028)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$132.13

Value

$147.88

PnL

+$15.75

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$51.09

Value

$55.79

PnL

+$4.7

Record

46%

877-1050 (1927)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

$41.27

Value

$51.6

PnL

+$10.33

Record

58%

3760-2730 (6490)

Pan9XCTR

Under

Invested

$107.75

Value

$45.52

PnL

-$45.57

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.68

Value

$12.9

PnL

+$0.22

Record

41%

1108-1568 (2676)

balthazarCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.6

Value

$12

PnL

+$5.4

Record

43%

5158-6923 (12081)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.5

Value

$11.8

PnL

+$0.3

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.27

Value

$8.08

PnL

+$1.8

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.17

Value

$7.79

PnL

-$0.38

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 17 top traders (35%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.