Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 12 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 46¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 5

Over46¢Under54¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

-$77.07

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 45.5¢

-7% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

12 of 17 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over12 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares10,881

Combined PnL-$87.97

Under5 traders

Total Value$817.27

Total Shares1,436

Combined PnL+$10.9

Over — 71%Under — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 52.2¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$26.8	54% 18039-15168 (33207)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 52.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$20.86	51% 24552-23218 (47770)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.3¢	$779.76	$813.14	+$33.37
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.4¢	$318.36	$305.84	-$12.51
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 56.7¢	$703.23	$713.24	+$10.01	51% 4665-4491 (9156)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 40.3¢	$607.14	$610.89	+$3.76	50% 4275-4242 (8517)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 44.4¢	$580.59	$556.32	-$24.27	46% 1423-1681 (3104)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 48¢	$573.95	$543.72	-$30.23	53% 4720-4228 (8948)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 52.9¢	$446.87	$440.27	+$14.42	48% 59829-63853 (123682)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.9¢	$264.04	$272.26	+$8.22
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.7¢	$161.5	$168.01	+$6.2
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 50¢	$400	$424	+$24	56% 7944-6252 (14196)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 50.8¢	$208.85	$186.9	-$21.95	53% 11951-10480 (22431)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 45.6¢	$131.58	$161.25	+$29.67	47% 11271-12651 (23922)
└ Under leg	Underavg 34¢	$50.69	$85	+$34.31
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.6¢	$80.89	$76.25	-$4.64
RN1CTR	Overavg 52¢	$130	$130	+$0	53% 60181-52537 (112718)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 51.5¢	$78.2	$68.39	-$9.81	50% 20939-21134 (42073)
3C 0x3ca9...424a	Underavg 58.4¢	$119.26	$65.73	+$0.47	50% 4211-4243 (8454)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$37	$46	+$9	53% 22918-20103 (43021)
NM NM-P<$100	Underavg 47¢	$26.46	$26.46	+$0	40% 1402-2100 (3502)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 45¢	$9	$9.5	+$0.5	56% 7759-6212 (13971)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 43.2¢	$8.21	$9.03	+$0.81	59% 32085-22689 (54774)
balthazarCTR<$100	Overavg 76¢	$18.98	$6.49	-$12.49	53% 29493-26352 (55845)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$3.59	$3.59	+$0	48% 306-333 (639)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.35	-$0.08	52% 8633-7856 (16489)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$3,197.17

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$26.8

Record

54%

18039-15168 (33207)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,098.12

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$20.86

Record

51%

24552-23218 (47770)

Both legs:

Under$779.7652.3¢+$33.37

Over$318.3647.4¢-$12.51

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$703.23

Value

$713.24

PnL

+$10.01

Record

51%

4665-4491 (9156)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$607.14

Value

$610.89

PnL

+$3.76

Record

50%

4275-4242 (8517)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$580.59

Value

$556.32

PnL

-$24.27

Record

46%

1423-1681 (3104)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$573.95

Value

$543.72

PnL

-$30.23

Record

53%

4720-4228 (8948)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$446.87

Value

$440.27

PnL

+$14.42

Record

48%

59829-63853 (123682)

Both legs:

Under$264.0452.9¢+$8.22

Over$161.543.7¢+$6.2

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$400

Value

$424

PnL

+$24

Record

56%

7944-6252 (14196)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$208.85

Value

$186.9

PnL

-$21.95

Record

53%

11951-10480 (22431)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$131.58

Value

$161.25

PnL

+$29.67

Record

47%

11271-12651 (23922)

Both legs:

Under$50.6934¢+$34.31

Over$80.8945.6¢-$4.64

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$130

Value

$130

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

60181-52537 (112718)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$78.2

Value

$68.39

PnL

-$9.81

Record

50%

20939-21134 (42073)

0x3ca9...424a

Under

Invested

$119.26

Value

$65.73

PnL

+$0.47

Record

50%

4211-4243 (8454)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37

Value

$46

PnL

+$9

Record

53%

22918-20103 (43021)

NM-P<$100

Under

Invested

$26.46

Value

$26.46

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

1402-2100 (3502)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

56%

7759-6212 (13971)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.21

Value

$9.03

PnL

+$0.81

Record

59%

32085-22689 (54774)

balthazarCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.98

Value

$6.49

PnL

-$12.49

Record

53%

29493-26352 (55845)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.59

Value

$3.59

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

306-333 (639)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

8633-7856 (16489)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

12 of 17 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.