Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 257.5

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 92¢ · $56K held · ended Nov 15

Over9¢Under91¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

Total Value

$55.6K

Combined PnL

$393.86

Smart Money Entry

75.9¢ → 91.5¢

+20% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over9%

Under92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$50.6K

Total Shares55,239

Combined PnL+$8.6K

Over8 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares54,915

Combined PnL$-8.2K

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MD MD14	Underavg 76¢	$40.7K	$49.0K	+$8.3K	81% 22-5 (27)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Overavg 24¢	$12.0K	$4.3K	$-7.7K	51% 3891-3679 (7570)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 72¢	$720	$955	+$235	51% 528-501 (1029)
NO NotJump	Underavg 77¢	$385	$477.5	+$92.5	51% 970-935 (1905)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 26¢	$765.23	$362.57	-$100.08	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 23.9¢	$703.89	$333.46	-$370.43	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
RN1	Underavg 75¢	$97.86	$111.9	+$14.04	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 87.9¢	$80.94	$84.22	+$3.28	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 22.9¢	$32.51	$14.91	-$17.6	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$7.36	$8.28	+$0.92	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 23¢	$20.93	$7.74	-$13.2	58% 3760-2730 (6490)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 2¢	$2.39	$5.37	+$2.98	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 73¢	$3.72	$3.82	+$0.1	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$3.03	$3.41	+$0.38	50% 1827-1860 (3687)

MD14

Under

Invested

$40,676.82

Value

$49.0K

PnL

+$8.3K

Record

81%

22-5 (27)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Over

Invested

$12,000

Value

$4.3K

PnL

$-7.7K

Record

51%

3891-3679 (7570)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$720

Value

$955

PnL

+$235

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

NotJump

Under

Invested

$385

Value

$477.5

PnL

+$92.5

Record

51%

970-935 (1905)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$765.23

Value

$362.57

PnL

-$100.08

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$703.89

Value

$333.46

PnL

-$370.43

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

RN1

Under

Invested

$97.86

Value

$111.9

PnL

+$14.04

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$80.94

Value

$84.22

PnL

+$3.28

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32.51

Value

$14.91

PnL

-$17.6

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.36

Value

$8.28

PnL

+$0.92

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.93

Value

$7.74

PnL

-$13.2

Record

58%

3760-2730 (6490)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.39

Value

$5.37

PnL

+$2.98

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$3.72

Value

$3.82

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.03

Value

$3.41

PnL

+$0.38

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.