Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (68%). 9 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 249.5

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Over (53%) · Over at 32¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Over32¢Under68¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$396.99

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 32¢

-35% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 32%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 17 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Under 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over32%

Under68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,303

Combined PnL+$135.05

Under8 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,949

Combined PnL+$261.94

Over — 53%Under — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 53.1¢	$890.29	$896.34	+$6.05	49% 430-445 (875)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 52.1¢	$751.64	$523.06	+$78.9	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Underavg 46¢	$460	$515	+$55	40% 632-954 (1586)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Underavg 72¢	$516.56	$427.79	-$88.78	51% 528-501 (1029)
└ Under leg	Underavg 72¢	$304.92	$311.27	+$6.35
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.1¢	$211.64	$116.51	-$95.13
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Underavg 48¢	$300	$321.88	+$21.88	45% 140-171 (311)
VE Venusian	Underavg 45¢	$129.31	$255.75	+$126.44	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 31¢	$157.74	$208.48	+$50.74	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
LI Limousin	Underavg 50¢	$132.12	$162.51	+$30.39	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 46¢	$132.1	$147.89	+$15.79	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 47.6¢	$132.14	$143.07	+$10.93	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 41¢	$82	$83	+$1	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 49.6¢	$70.5	$70.4	-$0.1	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$19.36	$21.78	+$2.42	46% 877-1050 (1927)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$6.85	$5.62	-$1.23	47% 590-656 (1246)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 52¢	$3.8	$4.31	+$0.51	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$3.9	$3.8	-$0.1	65% 668-360 (1028)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$3.9	$3.2	-$0.7	58% 3760-2730 (6490)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$1.17	$0.24	-$0.93	50% 1827-1860 (3687)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$890.29

Value

$896.34

PnL

+$6.05

Record

49%

430-445 (875)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$751.64

Value

$523.06

PnL

+$78.9

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Under

Invested

$460

Value

$515

PnL

+$55

Record

40%

632-954 (1586)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$516.56

Value

$427.79

PnL

-$88.78

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

Both legs:

Under$304.9272¢+$6.35

Over$211.6448.1¢-$95.13

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Under

Invested

$300

Value

$321.88

PnL

+$21.88

Record

45%

140-171 (311)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$129.31

Value

$255.75

PnL

+$126.44

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$157.74

Value

$208.48

PnL

+$50.74

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$132.12

Value

$162.51

PnL

+$30.39

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$132.1

Value

$147.89

PnL

+$15.79

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$132.14

Value

$143.07

PnL

+$10.93

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$82

Value

$83

PnL

+$1

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$70.5

Value

$70.4

PnL

-$0.1

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.36

Value

$21.78

PnL

+$2.42

Record

46%

877-1050 (1927)

micky456CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.85

Value

$5.62

PnL

-$1.23

Record

47%

590-656 (1246)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$3.8

Value

$4.31

PnL

+$0.51

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.9

Value

$3.8

PnL

-$0.1

Record

65%

668-360 (1028)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.9

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$0.7

Record

58%

3760-2730 (6490)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.17

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$0.93

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 32%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 17 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Under 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.1%

32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$193.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

293.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.