Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cavaliers, while the market favors Mavericks (53%). 8 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (50%) · Cavaliers at 48¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 15

Cavaliers48¢Mavericks52¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

$749.43

Smart Money Entry

30¢ → 47.5¢

+58% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

8 of 16 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Mavericks 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers48%

Mavericks53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cavaliers8 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares20,832

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Mavericks8 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares4,984

Combined PnL-$388.14

Cavaliers — 50%Mavericks — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Cavaliersavg 32¢	$4.4K	$4.1K	-$274.7	51% 3889-3672 (7561)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Cavaliersavg 22.2¢	$1.2K	$2.6K	+$1.4K	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
RollAwayTheDew	Mavericksavg 87¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$43.37	18% 59-271 (330)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Mavericksavg 88¢	$960.32	$633.06	-$327.26	55% 1734-1418 (3152)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69	Mavericksavg 87¢	$501.32	$489.8	-$11.52	51% 178-174 (352)
NO NotJump	Mavericksavg 69¢	$345	$350	+$5	51% 954-911 (1865)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Mavericksavg 53¢	$292.17	$294.92	+$2.76	51% 528-501 (1029)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Cavaliersavg 47¢	$259.09	$261.85	+$2.76	38% 1162-1897 (3059)
VE VenusianCTR	Cavaliersavg 46¢	$184	$190	+$6	37% 1136-1943 (3079)
SU suitcase6628CTR	Cavaliersavg 31¢	$74.4	$114	+$39.6	65% 662-359 (1021)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 47¢	$64.74	$65.42	+$0.69	50% 2654-2620 (5274)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 22¢	$65.34	$62.37	-$2.97	47% 589-654 (1243)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 22¢	$52.07	$57.84	+$5.77	57% 3585-2663 (6248)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 22¢	$30.32	$36.52	+$6.2
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 75¢	$21.75	$21.32	-$0.43
PA Pan9X<$100	Mavericksavg 73.5¢	$76.22	$34.68	-$16.16	49% 1751-1796 (3547)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 22.5¢	$21.4	$28.5	+$7.1	48% 2318-2517 (4835)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Mavericksavg 64¢	$25.78	$28.19	+$2.42	38% 1276-2064 (3340)
38 38791873984189<$100	Mavericksavg 85¢	$2.55	$2.55	+$0	47% 3487-3859 (7346)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$4,395.17

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$274.7

Record

51%

3889-3672 (7561)

FlaznorpCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,194.49

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

RollAwayTheDew

Mavericks

Invested

$1,886.73

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$43.37

Record

18%

59-271 (330)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Mavericks

Invested

$960.32

Value

$633.06

PnL

-$327.26

Record

55%

1734-1418 (3152)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69

Mavericks

Invested

$501.32

Value

$489.8

PnL

-$11.52

Record

51%

178-174 (352)

NotJump

Mavericks

Invested

$345

Value

$350

PnL

+$5

Record

51%

954-911 (1865)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Mavericks

Invested

$292.17

Value

$294.92

PnL

+$2.76

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

MadridTimeCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$259.09

Value

$261.85

PnL

+$2.76

Record

38%

1162-1897 (3059)

VenusianCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$184

Value

$190

PnL

+$6

Record

37%

1136-1943 (3079)

suitcase6628CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$74.4

Value

$114

PnL

+$39.6

Record

65%

662-359 (1021)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$64.74

Value

$65.42

PnL

+$0.69

Record

50%

2654-2620 (5274)

micky456CTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$65.34

Value

$62.37

PnL

-$2.97

Record

47%

589-654 (1243)

takeormakeARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$52.07

Value

$57.84

PnL

+$5.77

Record

57%

3585-2663 (6248)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$30.3222¢+$6.2

Mavericks$21.7575¢-$0.43

Pan9X<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$76.22

Value

$34.68

PnL

-$16.16

Record

49%

1751-1796 (3547)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$21.4

Value

$28.5

PnL

+$7.1

Record

48%

2318-2517 (4835)

topdogbigboi<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$25.78

Value

$28.19

PnL

+$2.42

Record

38%

1276-2064 (3340)

38791873984189<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

3487-3859 (7346)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

8 of 16 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Mavericks 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.