Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)

9 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (43%) · Cavaliers at 82¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Cavaliers82¢Mavericks18¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 43%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

-$360.2

Smart Money Entry

62.9¢ → 81.5¢

+30% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

9 of 21 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers82%

Mavericks19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cavaliers9 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares5,157

Combined PnL+$408.43

Mavericks12 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares5,184

Combined PnL-$768.63

Cavaliers — 43%Mavericks — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Cavaliersavg 66.9¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$218.83	51% 528-501 (1029)
MaoZeDonK	Cavaliersavg 51.7¢	$915.34	$1.0K	+$129.75	55% 41-33 (74)
TA takeormake	Cavaliersavg 77.9¢	$968.32	$983.68	+$15.36	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Mavericksavg 86¢	$815.28	$445.56	-$369.72	70% 1725-752 (2477)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 61.5¢	$382.71	$357.26	-$25.45	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 61.5¢	$224.3	$281.06	+$56.76
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 47.8¢	$158.41	$76.21	-$82.21
FL FlaznorpCTR	Mavericksavg 19.2¢	$359.55	$347.18	-$12.37	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Mavericksavg 48.3¢	$537.15	$298.13	-$105.96	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 52¢	$227.92	$229.58	+$1.67	51% 970-935 (1905)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 52¢	$130	$127.5	-$2.5
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 47¢	$97.92	$102.08	+$4.17
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Mavericksavg 46.5¢	$226.5	$219	-$7.5	49% 572-596 (1168)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 46.5¢	$139.5	$138	-$1.5
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 58¢	$87	$81	-$6
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Cavaliersavg 51¢	$142.52	$142.52	-$0	50% 2685-2651 (5336)
LI LimousinCTR	Mavericksavg 47.7¢	$264.25	$113.5	-$150.75	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
VE VenusianCTR	Mavericksavg 46.3¢	$226.35	$100.16	-$126.19	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
38 38791873984189<$100	Cavaliersavg 60.7¢	$64.28	$71.47	+$7.19	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 31¢	$62	$71	+$9	49% 588-623 (1211)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 49¢	$43.12	$46.2	+$3.08	46% 877-1050 (1927)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cavaliersavg 54.3¢	$78.37	$26.35	+$23.58	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 22¢	$16.28	$13.69	-$2.59	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
MI micky456	Cavaliersavg 24¢	$104.04	$13.01	+$10.96	47% 590-656 (1246)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 86¢	$13.76	$7.52	-$6.24	44% 283-358 (641)
RN1<$100	Cavaliersavg 86¢	$6.14	$6.21	+$0.07	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 50¢	$12.1	$5.08	-$7.02	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
CI cigarettes<$100	Cavaliersavg 23¢	$2.21	$4.9	+$2.69	53% 7310-6373 (13683)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 31¢	$3.3	$3.51	+$0.21	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 24¢	$1.14	$1.05	-$0.09	46% 2939-3486 (6425)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,166.58

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$218.83

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

MaoZeDonK

Cavaliers

Invested

$915.34

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$129.75

Record

55%

41-33 (74)

takeormake

Cavaliers

Invested

$968.32

Value

$983.68

PnL

+$15.36

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

SunlineTickerCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$815.28

Value

$445.56

PnL

-$369.72

Record

70%

1725-752 (2477)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$382.71

Value

$357.26

PnL

-$25.45

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$224.361.5¢+$56.76

Mavericks$158.4147.8¢-$82.21

FlaznorpCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$359.55

Value

$347.18

PnL

-$12.37

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$537.15

Value

$298.13

PnL

-$105.96

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

NotJumpARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$227.92

Value

$229.58

PnL

+$1.67

Record

51%

970-935 (1905)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$13052¢-$2.5

Mavericks$97.9247¢+$4.17

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$226.5

Value

$219

PnL

-$7.5

Record

49%

572-596 (1168)

Both legs:

Mavericks$139.546.5¢-$1.5

Cavaliers$8758¢-$6

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Cavaliers

Invested

$142.52

Value

$142.52

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

LimousinCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$264.25

Value

$113.5

PnL

-$150.75

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

VenusianCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$226.35

Value

$100.16

PnL

-$126.19

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

38791873984189<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$64.28

Value

$71.47

PnL

+$7.19

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$62

Value

$71

PnL

+$9

Record

49%

588-623 (1211)

lryyyCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$43.12

Value

$46.2

PnL

+$3.08

Record

46%

877-1050 (1927)

Pan9X<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$78.37

Value

$26.35

PnL

+$23.58

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$16.28

Value

$13.69

PnL

-$2.59

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

micky456

Cavaliers

Invested

$104.04

Value

$13.01

PnL

+$10.96

Record

47%

590-656 (1246)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$13.76

Value

$7.52

PnL

-$6.24

Record

44%

283-358 (641)

RN1<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$6.14

Value

$6.21

PnL

+$0.07

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$12.1

Value

$5.08

PnL

-$7.02

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

cigarettes<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$2.21

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$2.69

Record

53%

7310-6373 (13683)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.51

PnL

+$0.21

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

suntoriCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$0.09

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

9 of 21 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.