Mavericks vs. Celtics: O/U 203.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 84¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over84¢Under16¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$77.06

Smart Money Entry

80.7¢ → 84¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over84%

Under16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,553

Combined PnL+$130.75

Under6 traders

Total Value$156.45

Total Shares817

Combined PnL-$53.69

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 78.5¢	$545.38	$585.61	+$40.22	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 21.6¢	$1.4K	$484.71	-$145.83	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
└ Under leg	Underavg 21.6¢	$451.02	$324.12	-$126.9
└ Over leg	Overavg 80.6¢	$153.23	$160.59	-$18.94
MI micky456	Overavg 85.8¢	$395.56	$391.85	-$3.71	48% 654-715 (1369)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 78¢	$2.1K	$303.43	+$92.84	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$92.19	$94.62	+$2.43	38% 1445-2329 (3774)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 81¢	$134.41	$55.81	+$1.4	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$32.34	$22.05	-$10.29	57% 4084-3020 (7104)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 16.9¢	$61.01	$19.6	+$0.26	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
SU suitcase6628CTR	Underavg 19¢	$979.65	$11.36	-$45.58	66% 803-421 (1224)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$5.93	$6.65	+$0.72	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 22.7¢	$3.4	$2.18	-$1.23	48% 2668-2892 (5560)

RN1

Over

Invested

$545.38

Value

$585.61

PnL

+$40.22

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,410.51

Value

$484.71

PnL

-$145.83

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

Both legs:

Under$451.0221.6¢-$126.9

Over$153.2380.6¢-$18.94

micky456

Over

Invested

$395.56

Value

$391.85

PnL

-$3.71

Record

48%

654-715 (1369)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$2,140.2

Value

$303.43

PnL

+$92.84

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$92.19

Value

$94.62

PnL

+$2.43

Record

38%

1445-2329 (3774)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$134.41

Value

$55.81

PnL

+$1.4

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.34

Value

$22.05

PnL

-$10.29

Record

57%

4084-3020 (7104)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$61.01

Value

$19.6

PnL

+$0.26

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

suitcase6628CTR

Under

Invested

$979.65

Value

$11.36

PnL

-$45.58

Record

66%

803-421 (1224)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.93

Value

$6.65

PnL

+$0.72

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.4

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$1.23

Record

48%

2668-2892 (5560)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.