Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 8 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (62%) · Under at 46¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 12

Over54¢Under46¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 62%

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

-$369.63

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 46¢

-4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares10,871

Combined PnL+$323.01

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares6,880

Combined PnL-$692.63

Under — 62%Over — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 49.6¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$206.64	31% 410-923 (1333)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Overavg 50¢	$2.6K	$2.2K	-$473.92	48% 536-588 (1124)
rafaleaooCTR	Underavg 47¢	$940	$1.2K	+$240	2% 14-633 (647)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 45.3¢	$704.07	$893.12	+$189.05	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 55.4¢	$836.91	$618.9	-$218.01	55% 719-584 (1303)
BI biying88888CTR	Underavg 44¢	$352	$368	+$16	37% 121-203 (324)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 48¢	$275.52	$338.66	+$63.14	14% 77-472 (549)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 48¢	$90.05	$110.68	+$20.64	52% 497-452 (949)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 47.1¢	$68.88	$67.27	-$1.61	30% 401-920 (1321)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Overavg 40¢	$34.58	$35.44	+$0.86	53% 290-259 (549)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$11.94	$11.43	+$2.44	55% 680-552 (1232)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 48.6¢	$6.22	$5.25	-$0.97	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
JO JoeyAroyyOO<$100	Overavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.1	-$0.6	48% 101-110 (211)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$2,824.08

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$206.64

Record

31%

410-923 (1333)

Multicoloured-Serf

Over

Invested

$2,632.9

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$473.92

Record

48%

536-588 (1124)

rafaleaooCTR

Under

Invested

$940

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$240

Record

14-633 (647)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$704.07

Value

$893.12

PnL

+$189.05

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$836.91

Value

$618.9

PnL

-$218.01

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

biying88888CTR

Under

Invested

$352

Value

$368

PnL

+$16

Record

37%

121-203 (324)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$275.52

Value

$338.66

PnL

+$63.14

Record

14%

77-472 (549)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$90.05

Value

$110.68

PnL

+$20.64

Record

52%

497-452 (949)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$68.88

Value

$67.27

PnL

-$1.61

Record

30%

401-920 (1321)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Over

Invested

$34.58

Value

$35.44

PnL

+$0.86

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.94

Value

$11.43

PnL

+$2.44

Record

55%

680-552 (1232)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$6.22

Value

$5.25

PnL

-$0.97

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

JoeyAroyyOO<$100

Over

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.6

Record

48%

101-110 (211)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.