Bulls vs. Knicks: O/U 236.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 95¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 71%
$2.9K
$423.95
59.4¢ → 94.8¢
+60% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 95%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Overavg 53.7¢ | $642.72 | $1.0K | +$376.84 | 56% 7920-6245 (14165) |
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 80.8¢ | $1.0K | $679.92 | -$354 | 51% 24452-23135 (47587) |
JO JoeyAroyyOO | Overavg 43.9¢ | $702.07 | $628.35 | +$320.44 | 46% 72-83 (155) |
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375 | Overavg 65.2¢ | $557.54 | $499 | +$135.52 | 50% 4274-4238 (8512) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 56¢ | $139.99 | $87.49 | -$52.5 | 53% 60181-52537 (112718) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $21.05 | $24.68 | +$3.63 | 54% 18039-15168 (33207) |
3C 0x3ca9...424aCTR<$100 | Underavg 31.1¢ | $25.27 | $1.78 | -$6 | — |
Invested
$642.72
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$376.84
Record
56%
7920-6245 (14165)
Invested
$1,033.92
Value
$679.92
PnL
-$354
Record
51%
24452-23135 (47587)
Invested
$702.07
Value
$628.35
PnL
+$320.44
Record
46%
72-83 (155)
Invested
$557.54
Value
$499
PnL
+$135.52
Record
50%
4274-4238 (8512)
RN1CTRInvested
$139.99
Value
$87.49
PnL
-$52.5
Record
53%
60181-52537 (112718)
Invested
$21.05
Value
$24.68
PnL
+$3.63
Record
54%
18039-15168 (33207)
Invested
$25.27
Value
$1.78
PnL
-$6
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.