Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 50¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 63%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$133.62

Smart Money Entry

48.7¢ → 50¢

+3% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 16 top traders (63%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over10 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,278

Combined PnL+$0.6

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,640

Combined PnL+$133.02

Over — 63%Under — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 43.2¢	$695.09	$691.77	-$3.32	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
LU luckycat888888	Underavg 56¢	$559.99	$619.99	+$60	28% 48-122 (170)
AN Anon455	Overavg 61¢	$611.36	$611.27	-$0.09	49% 430-445 (875)
JU justaluckydude	Underavg 39¢	$449.68	$536.4	+$107.18	49% 588-623 (1211)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 58.9¢	$263.14	$227.8	-$35.34	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 61¢	$79.97	$81.36	+$1.4	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Overavg 63¢	$63.14	$64.14	+$1	51% 528-501 (1029)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 33.8¢	$66.67	$63.12	-$3.55	58% 3760-2730 (6490)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 68.4¢	$53.36	$53.04	-$0.32	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
MA MadridTime<$100	Overavg 33¢	$51.56	$50	-$1.56	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
RN1<$100	Overavg 30¢	$14.1	$24.68	+$10.58	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
MI micky456<$100	Overavg 33.9¢	$8.73	$8.24	-$0.49	47% 590-656 (1246)
HY hydra1248<$100	Overavg 75¢	$7.49	$4.19	-$3.3	75% 203-67 (270)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 32¢	$3.2	$3.9	+$0.7	47% 1065-1216 (2281)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 31¢	$3.1	$3.9	+$0.8	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
dips.<$100	Overavg 34¢	$1.36	$1.28	-$0.08	48% 1115-1227 (2342)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$695.09

Value

$691.77

PnL

-$3.32

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

luckycat888888

Under

Invested

$559.99

Value

$619.99

PnL

+$60

Record

28%

48-122 (170)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$611.36

Value

$611.27

PnL

-$0.09

Record

49%

430-445 (875)

justaluckydude

Under

Invested

$449.68

Value

$536.4

PnL

+$107.18

Record

49%

588-623 (1211)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$263.14

Value

$227.8

PnL

-$35.34

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$79.97

Value

$81.36

PnL

+$1.4

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Over

Invested

$63.14

Value

$64.14

PnL

+$1

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

$66.67

Value

$63.12

PnL

-$3.55

Record

58%

3760-2730 (6490)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$53.36

Value

$53.04

PnL

-$0.32

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

MadridTime<$100

Over

Invested

$51.56

Value

$50

PnL

-$1.56

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$14.1

Value

$24.68

PnL

+$10.58

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

micky456<$100

Over

Invested

$8.73

Value

$8.24

PnL

-$0.49

Record

47%

590-656 (1246)

hydra1248<$100

Over

Invested

$7.49

Value

$4.19

PnL

-$3.3

Record

75%

203-67 (270)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$0.7

Record

47%

1065-1216 (2281)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$3.1

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$0.8

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$1.36

Value

$1.28

PnL

-$0.08

Record

48%

1115-1227 (2342)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 16 top traders (63%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.