Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (57%). 9 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Under (53%) · Under at 43¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 15

Over57¢Under43¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$470.01

Smart Money Entry

58.7¢ → 43¢

-27% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 17 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,736

Combined PnL-$251.73

Over8 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares5,363

Combined PnL+$721.74

Under — 53%Over — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 65.7¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$65.01	49% 430-445 (875)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 52.3¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$202.08	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
└ Over leg	Overavg 36¢	$475.12	$806.07	+$330.95
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.3¢	$543.49	$405.22	-$128.87
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 47.7¢	$1.9K	$1.1K	+$240.11	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 41.8¢	$752.83	$1.0K	+$274.85	51% 528-501 (1029)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 53¢	$1.0K	$651.04	-$378.96	50% 2685-2651 (5336)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 40.7¢	$251.53	$376.71	+$125.18	49% 588-623 (1211)
RN1	Overavg 57¢	$349.28	$373.79	+$24.51	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
MA MadridTime	Overavg 47¢	$132.11	$171.46	+$39.35	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
PA Pan9XCTR	Underavg 61.2¢	$105.29	$106.64	+$1.35	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 48¢	$55.01	$69.91	+$14.9	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 55.8¢	$156.34	$54	-$5.14	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$20.96	$44.87	+$23.91	47% 590-656 (1246)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$18.24	$39.05	+$20.81	58% 3760-2730 (6490)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$16	$34.25	+$18.25	65% 668-360 (1028)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 59¢	$25.7	$28.1	+$2.4	46% 877-1050 (1927)
LI Limousin<$100	Overavg 46¢	$10.05	$9.83	-$0.22	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 40.3¢	$5.94	$9	+$3.06	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$2.7	$3.35	+$0.65	37% 1155-1966 (3121)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$1,506.79

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$65.01

Record

49%

430-445 (875)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,052.07

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$202.08

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

Both legs:

Over$475.1236¢+$330.95

Under$543.4952.3¢-$128.87

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$1,920.37

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$240.11

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$752.83

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$274.85

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$1,030

Value

$651.04

PnL

-$378.96

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$251.53

Value

$376.71

PnL

+$125.18

Record

49%

588-623 (1211)

RN1

Over

Invested

$349.28

Value

$373.79

PnL

+$24.51

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

MadridTime

Over

Invested

$132.11

Value

$171.46

PnL

+$39.35

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

Pan9XCTR

Under

Invested

$105.29

Value

$106.64

PnL

+$1.35

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$55.01

Value

$69.91

PnL

+$14.9

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$156.34

Value

$54

PnL

-$5.14

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

micky456CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.96

Value

$44.87

PnL

+$23.91

Record

47%

590-656 (1246)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.24

Value

$39.05

PnL

+$20.81

Record

58%

3760-2730 (6490)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16

Value

$34.25

PnL

+$18.25

Record

65%

668-360 (1028)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.7

Value

$28.1

PnL

+$2.4

Record

46%

877-1050 (1927)

Limousin<$100

Over

Invested

$10.05

Value

$9.83

PnL

-$0.22

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$5.94

Value

PnL

+$3.06

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.7

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$0.65

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 17 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.