Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5

7 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Over (41%) · Over at 63¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over63¢Under37¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 41%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$65.14

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 63¢

+23% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 17 top traders (41%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over63%

Under37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,786

Combined PnL+$44.73

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,545

Combined PnL-$109.87

Under — 59%Over — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 51.8¢	$692.44	$736.63	+$44.19	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Overavg 46.1¢	$748.56	$558.22	+$170.3	49% 588-623 (1211)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.1¢	$318.56	$435.46	+$116.9
└ Under leg	Underavg 43¢	$142.67	$122.76	+$53.4
AN Anon455	Overavg 57¢	$570.98	$491	-$79.98	49% 430-445 (875)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 46.2¢	$462.45	$385.15	-$2.82	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
TA takeormake	Overavg 45¢	$377.1	$364.53	-$12.57	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
MI micky456	Overavg 47.7¢	$114.32	$151.02	+$36.69	47% 590-656 (1246)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 54.3¢	$1.3K	$140.94	-$48.75	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 50.9¢	$88.14	$97.74	+$9.6	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$65.58	$79.5	+$13.92	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Overavg 53¢	$74.48	$72.37	-$2.11	51% 528-501 (1029)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 45.9¢	$69.39	$55.94	-$13.45	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$64.55	$53.07	-$11.48	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$40	$43.5	+$3.5	53% 7310-6373 (13683)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 47¢	$26.32	$24.64	-$1.68	58% 3760-2730 (6490)
dips.<$100	Overavg 47¢	$23.03	$21.56	-$1.47	48% 1115-1227 (2342)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$19.58	$21.29	+$1.71	65% 668-360 (1028)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$7.43	$7.18	-$0.25	50% 2685-2651 (5336)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$4.7	$4.5	-$0.2	37% 1176-1966 (3142)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$692.44

Value

$736.63

PnL

+$44.19

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$748.56

Value

$558.22

PnL

+$170.3

Record

49%

588-623 (1211)

Both legs:

Over$318.5646.1¢+$116.9

Under$142.6743¢+$53.4

Anon455

Over

Invested

$570.98

Value

$491

PnL

-$79.98

Record

49%

430-445 (875)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$462.45

Value

$385.15

PnL

-$2.82

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$377.1

Value

$364.53

PnL

-$12.57

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

micky456

Over

Invested

$114.32

Value

$151.02

PnL

+$36.69

Record

47%

590-656 (1246)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$1,252.23

Value

$140.94

PnL

-$48.75

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$88.14

Value

$97.74

PnL

+$9.6

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$65.58

Value

$79.5

PnL

+$13.92

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Over

Invested

$74.48

Value

$72.37

PnL

-$2.11

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$69.39

Value

$55.94

PnL

-$13.45

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$64.55

Value

$53.07

PnL

-$11.48

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40

Value

$43.5

PnL

+$3.5

Record

53%

7310-6373 (13683)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

$26.32

Value

$24.64

PnL

-$1.68

Record

58%

3760-2730 (6490)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$23.03

Value

$21.56

PnL

-$1.47

Record

48%

1115-1227 (2342)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.58

Value

$21.29

PnL

+$1.71

Record

65%

668-360 (1028)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.43

Value

$7.18

PnL

-$0.25

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.2

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 17 top traders (41%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.