Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (73%). 14 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 220.5

14 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Under (74%) · Under at 27¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Over73¢Under27¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 74%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$142.43

Smart Money Entry

45.1¢ → 27¢

-40% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

14 of 19 top traders (74%)Underdog side (market favors Over 73%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over73%

Under27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,033

Combined PnL+$449.46

Under14 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares5,861

Combined PnL-$591.89

Over — 26%Under — 74%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 75¢	$734.1	$684.62	-$49.48	51% 528-501 (1029)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 46.6¢	$997.93	$553.71	-$347.41	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
MA MadridTime	Overavg 45.6¢	$421.14	$550.43	+$129.3	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
TA takeormake	Overavg 53¢	$383.81	$546.8	+$162.98	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
SU suntori	Overavg 45¢	$287.61	$482.55	+$194.94	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 51.2¢	$451.01	$478.36	+$27.35	49% 430-445 (875)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 51.2¢	$318.38	$301.39	+$21.64	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
RN1CTR	Underavg 47¢	$120.32	$122.88	+$2.56	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 39.7¢	$192.18	$118.61	-$73.57	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 52.8¢	$1.1K	$109.78	-$155.72	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Underavg 54.7¢	$113.83	$99.91	-$13.92	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 52.9¢	$98.33	$90.21	-$8.12	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 43.6¢	$140.58	$78.97	-$61.61	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$69.99	$75.59	+$5.6	47% 590-656 (1246)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$37.5	$40.5	+$3	58% 3760-2730 (6490)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$37.5	$40.5	+$3	65% 668-360 (1028)
dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$37.49	$40.49	+$3	48% 1115-1227 (2342)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 50¢	$23	$34.73	+$11.73	49% 588-623 (1211)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$20.28	$17.6	+$2.32	48% 2325-2529 (4854)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$734.1

Value

$684.62

PnL

-$49.48

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$997.93

Value

$553.71

PnL

-$347.41

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

MadridTime

Over

Invested

$421.14

Value

$550.43

PnL

+$129.3

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$383.81

Value

$546.8

PnL

+$162.98

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

suntori

Over

Invested

$287.61

Value

$482.55

PnL

+$194.94

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$451.01

Value

$478.36

PnL

+$27.35

Record

49%

430-445 (875)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$318.38

Value

$301.39

PnL

+$21.64

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$120.32

Value

$122.88

PnL

+$2.56

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$192.18

Value

$118.61

PnL

-$73.57

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$1,117.88

Value

$109.78

PnL

-$155.72

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

topdogbigboiCTR

Under

Invested

$113.83

Value

$99.91

PnL

-$13.92

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$98.33

Value

$90.21

PnL

-$8.12

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$140.58

Value

$78.97

PnL

-$61.61

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

micky456CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$69.99

Value

$75.59

PnL

+$5.6

Record

47%

590-656 (1246)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$37.5

Value

$40.5

PnL

+$3

Record

58%

3760-2730 (6490)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$37.5

Value

$40.5

PnL

+$3

Record

65%

668-360 (1028)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$37.49

Value

$40.49

PnL

+$3

Record

48%

1115-1227 (2342)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$23

Value

$34.73

PnL

+$11.73

Record

49%

588-623 (1211)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.28

Value

$17.6

PnL

+$2.32

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

14 of 19 top traders (74%)Underdog side (market favors Over 73%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.0%

27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$244.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

344.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.