Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (67%) · Bulls at 67¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Timberwolves33¢Bulls67¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$111.18

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 67¢

+22% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

10 of 15 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves33%

Bulls67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls10 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,132

Combined PnL+$289.4

Timberwolves5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,831

Combined PnL-$178.22

Bulls — 67%Timberwolves — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Bullsavg 58¢	$580	$675	+$95	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Timberwolvesavg 32.2¢	$555.01	$552.2	-$2.81	51% 528-501 (1029)
JU justaluckydude	Bullsavg 49.2¢	$279.46	$375.25	+$95.79	49% 588-623 (1211)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Timberwolvesavg 47¢	$434.61	$348.49	+$68.81	49% 572-596 (1168)
FL Flaznorp	Bullsavg 44.8¢	$242.45	$319.48	+$77.03	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
MI micky456	Bullsavg 67¢	$226.12	$224.43	-$1.69	47% 590-656 (1246)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Bullsavg 57.2¢	$200.47	$200.22	-$0.25	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 43.3¢	$99.25	$102.05	+$2.8
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 57.2¢	$101.22	$98.17	-$3.05
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 41.9¢	$207.79	$177.85	+$75.11	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 37¢	$65.19	$107.37	+$80.29
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 41.9¢	$75.66	$70.48	-$5.18
VE Venusian	Bullsavg 46¢	$84.52	$112.08	+$27.56	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
LI LimousinCTR	Timberwolvesavg 41.5¢	$132.13	$103.49	-$28.64	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Bullsavg 67¢	$100.5	$99.75	-$0.75	58% 3760-2730 (6490)
dips.	Bullsavg 67¢	$100.5	$99.75	-$0.75	48% 1115-1227 (2342)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Timberwolvesavg 47.1¢	$1.7K	$65.11	-$253.78	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 51.9¢	$64.83	$51.65	-$4.82	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 51.9¢	$46.91	$29.37	-$17.54
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 34.5¢	$11.37	$22.28	+$12.72
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Bullsavg 55.9¢	$61.66	$50.78	-$10.88	43% 216-282 (498)
38 38791873984189<$100	Bullsavg 55¢	$94.34	$43.68	+$1.38	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
LI LightParadox<$100	Bullsavg 48¢	$16.48	$23.17	+$6.69	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
PA Pan9XCTR	Timberwolvesavg 45¢	$123.38	$9.87	+$38.2	50% 1827-1860 (3687)

RN1

Bulls

Invested

$580

Value

$675

PnL

+$95

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$555.01

Value

$552.2

PnL

-$2.81

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

justaluckydude

Bulls

Invested

$279.46

Value

$375.25

PnL

+$95.79

Record

49%

588-623 (1211)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$434.61

Value

$348.49

PnL

+$68.81

Record

49%

572-596 (1168)

Flaznorp

Bulls

Invested

$242.45

Value

$319.48

PnL

+$77.03

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

micky456

Bulls

Invested

$226.12

Value

$224.43

PnL

-$1.69

Record

47%

590-656 (1246)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$200.47

Value

$200.22

PnL

-$0.25

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$99.2543.3¢+$2.8

Bulls$101.2257.2¢-$3.05

MadridTimeARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$207.79

Value

$177.85

PnL

+$75.11

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

Both legs:

Bulls$65.1937¢+$80.29

Timberwolves$75.6641.9¢-$5.18

Venusian

Bulls

Invested

$84.52

Value

$112.08

PnL

+$27.56

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

LimousinCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$132.13

Value

$103.49

PnL

-$28.64

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Bulls

Invested

$100.5

Value

$99.75

PnL

-$0.75

Record

58%

3760-2730 (6490)

dips.

Bulls

Invested

$100.5

Value

$99.75

PnL

-$0.75

Record

48%

1115-1227 (2342)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$1,672.38

Value

$65.11

PnL

-$253.78

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

takeormakeARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$64.83

Value

$51.65

PnL

-$4.82

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$46.9151.9¢-$17.54

Bulls$11.3734.5¢+$12.72

NatoAlfista<$100

Bulls

Invested

$61.66

Value

$50.78

PnL

-$10.88

Record

43%

216-282 (498)

38791873984189<$100

Bulls

Invested

$94.34

Value

$43.68

PnL

+$1.38

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

LightParadox<$100

Bulls

Invested

$16.48

Value

$23.17

PnL

+$6.69

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

Pan9XCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$123.38

Value

$9.87

PnL

+$38.2

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

10 of 15 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.