Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bulls, while the market favors Timberwolves (82%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Bulls (-4.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (58%) · Bulls at 19¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Bulls19¢Timberwolves81¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$95.23

Smart Money Entry

25.3¢ → 18.5¢

-27% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bulls19%

Timberwolves82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls7 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares9,973

Combined PnL+$43.96

Timberwolves5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,391

Combined PnL+$51.27

Bulls — 58%Timberwolves — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Bullsavg 25¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$47.5	51% 3891-3679 (7570)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Timberwolvesavg 72.7¢	$500.58	$505.75	+$5.17	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
JU justaluckydude	Timberwolvesavg 66.5¢	$236.64	$293.7	+$57.06	49% 588-623 (1211)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Bullsavg 28¢	$320.55	$229.68	-$85.75	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 28¢	$235.89	$147.19	-$92.55
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 75.7¢	$75.69	$82.49	+$6.8
AN Anon455	Timberwolvesavg 66.6¢	$190.76	$180.33	-$10.44	49% 430-445 (875)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Bullsavg 37¢	$55.5	$52.5	-$3	49% 572-596 (1168)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Bullsavg 34.5¢	$40.71	$43.65	+$2.94	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
SU suntori<$100	Timberwolvesavg 72.4¢	$38.09	$39.21	+$1.12	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Bullsavg 25¢	$25	$25.5	+$0.5	47% 590-656 (1246)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Bullsavg 29¢	$14.5	$12.25	-$2.25	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Bullsavg 19.6¢	$9.8	$8.75	-$1.05	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
nigiri99<$100	Timberwolvesavg 95¢	$7.6	$5.96	-$1.64	51% 639-619 (1258)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Bullsavg 31¢	$1.55	$0.88	-$0.68	48% 2325-2529 (4854)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Bulls

Invested

$2,375

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$47.5

Record

51%

3891-3679 (7570)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Timberwolves

Invested

$500.58

Value

$505.75

PnL

+$5.17

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

justaluckydude

Timberwolves

Invested

$236.64

Value

$293.7

PnL

+$57.06

Record

49%

588-623 (1211)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$320.55

Value

$229.68

PnL

-$85.75

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

Both legs:

Bulls$235.8928¢-$92.55

Timberwolves$75.6975.7¢+$6.8

Anon455

Timberwolves

Invested

$190.76

Value

$180.33

PnL

-$10.44

Record

49%

430-445 (875)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$55.5

Value

$52.5

PnL

-$3

Record

49%

572-596 (1168)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$40.71

Value

$43.65

PnL

+$2.94

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

suntori<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$38.09

Value

$39.21

PnL

+$1.12

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

micky456CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$25

Value

$25.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

47%

590-656 (1246)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$14.5

Value

$12.25

PnL

-$2.25

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$9.8

Value

$8.75

PnL

-$1.05

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

nigiri99<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$7.6

Value

$5.96

PnL

-$1.64

Record

51%

639-619 (1258)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$1.55

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$0.68

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.3%

18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$392.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

493.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.