Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Timberwolves, while the market favors Bulls (54%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Bulls (-2.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (58%) · Timberwolves at 46¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Bulls54¢Timberwolves46¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$108.76

Smart Money Entry

64.3¢ → 46¢

-28% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Bulls 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bulls54%

Timberwolves46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,387

Combined PnL-$99.67

Bulls5 traders

Total Value$842.14

Total Shares1,763

Combined PnL+$208.43

Timberwolves — 58%Bulls — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Timberwolvesavg 68.7¢	$1.0K	$798.52	-$125.05	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Bullsavg 26¢	$233.74	$418.04	+$184.3	51% 528-501 (1029)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Timberwolvesavg 53.7¢	$250.81	$291.97	+$41.16	49% 588-623 (1211)
38 38791873984189	Bullsavg 42.8¢	$177.81	$186.95	+$9.14	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Bullsavg 46.5¢	$139.5	$150	+$10.5	49% 572-596 (1168)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Timberwolvesavg 54¢	$123.82	$127.26	+$3.44	48% 670-715 (1385)
SU suitcase6628ARB<$100	Bullsavg 52¢	$138.4	$123.9	-$14.5	65% 668-360 (1028)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 52¢	$93.6	$88.2	-$5.4
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 64¢	$44.8	$35.7	-$9.1
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Bullsavg 33.5¢	$91.33	$102.59	+$19.19	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 33.5¢	$48.13	$66.74	+$18.61
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 54¢	$36.18	$35.85	+$0.57
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 92¢	$98.44	$95.77	-$2.67	44% 283-358 (641)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Timberwolvesavg 65.8¢	$118.21	$95.26	-$22.95	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 50¢	$65.94	$70.56	+$4.62	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
PA Pan9X<$100	Bullsavg 42.8¢	$81.5	$51.54	+$3.45	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
RN1<$100	Bullsavg 44¢	$34.57	$35.61	+$1.04	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 64¢	$4.48	$6.27	+$1.79	58% 3760-2730 (6490)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$1,047.61

Value

$798.52

PnL

-$125.05

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Bulls

Invested

$233.74

Value

$418.04

PnL

+$184.3

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

justaluckydudeCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$250.81

Value

$291.97

PnL

+$41.16

Record

49%

588-623 (1211)

38791873984189

Bulls

Invested

$177.81

Value

$186.95

PnL

+$9.14

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

CandleHammerDrums

Bulls

Invested

$139.5

Value

$150

PnL

+$10.5

Record

49%

572-596 (1168)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$123.82

Value

$127.26

PnL

+$3.44

Record

48%

670-715 (1385)

suitcase6628ARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$138.4

Value

$123.9

PnL

-$14.5

Record

65%

668-360 (1028)

Both legs:

Bulls$93.652¢-$5.4

Timberwolves$44.864¢-$9.1

takeormakeARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$91.33

Value

$102.59

PnL

+$19.19

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

Both legs:

Bulls$48.1333.5¢+$18.61

Timberwolves$36.1854¢+$0.57

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$98.44

Value

$95.77

PnL

-$2.67

Record

44%

283-358 (641)

FlaznorpCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$118.21

Value

$95.26

PnL

-$22.95

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

VenusianCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$65.94

Value

$70.56

PnL

+$4.62

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

Pan9X<$100

Bulls

Invested

$81.5

Value

$51.54

PnL

+$3.45

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

RN1<$100

Bulls

Invested

$34.57

Value

$35.61

PnL

+$1.04

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$4.48

Value

$6.27

PnL

+$1.79

Record

58%

3760-2730 (6490)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Bulls 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.