Spread: Clippers (-4.5)

2 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (11%) · Hornets at 68¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 15

Clippers33¢Hornets67¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 11%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.1K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

54.2¢ → 67.5¢

+25% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

2 of 19 top traders (11%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Clippers33%

Hornets68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hornets2 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares13,351

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Clippers17 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares9,046

Combined PnL-$383.5

Hornets — 11%Clippers — 89%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI big8betz	Hornetsavg 54.4¢	$7.0K	$8.7K	+$1.7K	51% 85-83 (168)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Clippersavg 45.6¢	$4.1K	$1.7K	-$494.03	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 45.6¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	-$321.39
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 62.5¢	$641.74	$693.06	-$172.64
alpheclabs2CTR	Clippersavg 44.4¢	$991.65	$871.19	-$120.46	45% 383-475 (858)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Clippersavg 44.4¢	$609.94	$576.6	-$33.33	50% 4065-4065 (8130)
NO NotJump	Hornetsavg 50¢	$525	$525	+$0	50% 1210-1232 (2442)
RN1ARB<$100	Clippersavg 44.2¢	$571.15	$441.95	-$118.32	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 44.2¢	$465.45	$342.2	-$123.25
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 63¢	$93.1	$99.75	+$4.93
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Clippersavg 46.9¢	$462.89	$385.32	-$77.57	48% 653-714 (1367)
38 38791873984189CTR	Clippersavg 45.7¢	$518.66	$375.24	-$41.27	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Clippersavg 37¢	$350.69	$308.04	-$42.65	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Clippersavg 45.9¢	$294.28	$275.77	-$18.51	39% 1675-2667 (4342)
MI micky456CTR	Clippersavg 41.4¢	$374.53	$264.79	+$16.26	48% 654-715 (1369)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Clippersavg 41.4¢	$143.94	$127.18	+$1.72	57% 3689-2778 (6467)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 41.4¢	$83.61	$84.84	+$2.33
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 58.8¢	$42.95	$42.34	-$0.61
SU suitcase6628CTR	Clippersavg 37¢	$129.5	$113.75	-$15.75	65% 793-418 (1211)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Clippersavg 46.4¢	$104.91	$109.61	+$4.7	49% 2903-2977 (5880)
PA Pan9XCTR	Clippersavg 47.1¢	$148.76	$100.23	-$29.04	50% 2219-2233 (4452)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Clippersavg 35¢	$66.09	$61.37	-$4.72	38% 1426-2282 (3708)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Clippersavg 43¢	$66.38	$60.2	-$6.17	46% 1242-1436 (2678)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Clippersavg 44¢	$66	$58.5	-$7.5	53% 7612-6705 (14317)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Clippersavg 43.9¢	$43.45	$38.61	-$4.84	45% 1025-1238 (2263)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Clippersavg 44¢	$25.08	$22.23	-$2.85	38% 512-836 (1348)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Clippersavg 37¢	$14.91	$16.92	+$2.01	58% 4049-2979 (7028)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Clippersavg 37¢	$14.87	$13.06	-$1.81	48% 2658-2887 (5545)

big8betz

Hornets

Invested

$6,971.2

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

51%

85-83 (168)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$4,129.14

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$494.03

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

Both legs:

Clippers$1,416.9245.6¢-$321.39

Hornets$641.7462.5¢-$172.64

alpheclabs2CTR

Clippers

Invested

$991.65

Value

$871.19

PnL

-$120.46

Record

45%

383-475 (858)

6512395314597884CTR

Clippers

Invested

$609.94

Value

$576.6

PnL

-$33.33

Record

50%

4065-4065 (8130)

NotJump

Hornets

Invested

$525

Value

$525

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1210-1232 (2442)

RN1ARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$571.15

Value

$441.95

PnL

-$118.32

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

Both legs:

Clippers$465.4544.2¢-$123.25

Hornets$93.163¢+$4.93

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Clippers

Invested

$462.89

Value

$385.32

PnL

-$77.57

Record

48%

653-714 (1367)

38791873984189CTR

Clippers

Invested

$518.66

Value

$375.24

PnL

-$41.27

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

FlaznorpCTR

Clippers

Invested

$350.69

Value

$308.04

PnL

-$42.65

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

topdogbigboiCTR

Clippers

Invested

$294.28

Value

$275.77

PnL

-$18.51

Record

39%

1675-2667 (4342)

micky456CTR

Clippers

Invested

$374.53

Value

$264.79

PnL

+$16.26

Record

48%

654-715 (1369)

takeormakeARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$143.94

Value

$127.18

PnL

+$1.72

Record

57%

3689-2778 (6467)

Both legs:

Clippers$83.6141.4¢+$2.33

Hornets$42.9558.8¢-$0.61

suitcase6628CTR

Clippers

Invested

$129.5

Value

$113.75

PnL

-$15.75

Record

65%

793-418 (1211)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Clippers

Invested

$104.91

Value

$109.61

PnL

+$4.7

Record

49%

2903-2977 (5880)

Pan9XCTR

Clippers

Invested

$148.76

Value

$100.23

PnL

-$29.04

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$66.09

Value

$61.37

PnL

-$4.72

Record

38%

1426-2282 (3708)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$66.38

Value

$60.2

PnL

-$6.17

Record

46%

1242-1436 (2678)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$66

Value

$58.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

53%

7612-6705 (14317)

lryyyCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$43.45

Value

$38.61

PnL

-$4.84

Record

45%

1025-1238 (2263)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$25.08

Value

$22.23

PnL

-$2.85

Record

38%

512-836 (1348)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$14.91

Value

$16.92

PnL

+$2.01

Record

58%

4049-2979 (7028)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$14.87

Value

$13.06

PnL

-$1.81

Record

48%

2658-2887 (5545)

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

2 of 19 top traders (11%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.