Spread: Hornets (-8.5)

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (43%) · Clippers at 99¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Hornets1¢Clippers99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 43%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

85.1¢ → 98.7¢

+16% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hornets1%

Clippers99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers6 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,478

Combined PnL-$878.85

Hornets8 traders

Total Value$749.77

Total Shares3,090

Combined PnL-$538.74

Clippers — 43%Hornets — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Clippersavg 89.1¢	$3.1K	$1.1K	-$226.2	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
FL Flaznorp	Clippersavg 99.9¢	$1.8K	$1.0K	-$802.77	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
RN1	Clippersavg 79.3¢	$925.65	$902.34	-$23.31	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
NO NotJumpCTR	Hornetsavg 50¢	$525	$525	+$0	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
LI LightParadox	Clippersavg 47¢	$132.16	$279.64	+$147.48	38% 1454-2390 (3844)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Hornetsavg 41.1¢	$411.31	$107.27	-$304.05	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Clippersavg 89¢	$81.97	$82.91	+$0.94	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
TA takeormake<$100	Clippersavg 52.5¢	$52.5	$77.5	+$25	57% 3727-2840 (6567)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Hornetsavg 26¢	$50.7	$42.9	-$7.8	48% 654-715 (1369)
38 38791873984189CTR	Hornetsavg 35.5¢	$105.55	$30.37	-$74.18	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 21.9¢	$68.62	$27.18	-$6.26	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Hornetsavg 11¢	$120.12	$15.29	-$104.83	57% 4084-3020 (7104)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Hornetsavg 24.8¢	$23.17	$1.31	-$21.86	48% 2668-2892 (5560)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 46.8¢	$20.21	$0.45	-$19.76	38% 1462-2368 (3830)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Clippers

Invested

$3,085

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$226.2

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

Flaznorp

Clippers

Invested

$1,830.22

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$802.77

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

RN1

Clippers

Invested

$925.65

Value

$902.34

PnL

-$23.31

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

NotJumpCTR

Hornets

Invested

$525

Value

$525

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

LightParadox

Clippers

Invested

$132.16

Value

$279.64

PnL

+$147.48

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

6512395314597884CTR

Hornets

Invested

$411.31

Value

$107.27

PnL

-$304.05

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

topdogbigboi<$100

Clippers

Invested

$81.97

Value

$82.91

PnL

+$0.94

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

takeormake<$100

Clippers

Invested

$52.5

Value

$77.5

PnL

+$25

Record

57%

3727-2840 (6567)

micky456CTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$50.7

Value

$42.9

PnL

-$7.8

Record

48%

654-715 (1369)

38791873984189CTR

Hornets

Invested

$105.55

Value

$30.37

PnL

-$74.18

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$68.62

Value

$27.18

PnL

-$6.26

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Hornets

Invested

$120.12

Value

$15.29

PnL

-$104.83

Record

57%

4084-3020 (7104)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$23.17

Value

$1.31

PnL

-$21.86

Record

48%

2668-2892 (5560)

VenusianCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$20.21

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$19.76

Record

38%

1462-2368 (3830)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.