Spread: Hornets (-6.5)

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (47%) · Clippers at 99¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 15

Hornets<1¢Clippers>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 47%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$795.02

Smart Money Entry

72.6¢ → 99.3¢

+37% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

7 of 15 top traders (47%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hornets1%

Clippers99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers7 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares4,577

Combined PnL+$619.68

Hornets8 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,539

Combined PnL+$175.34

Clippers — 47%Hornets — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Clippersavg 99.5¢	$2.1K	$1.7K	-$396.48	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
OM omnibus-076daa	Clippersavg 48¢	$658.39	$1.3K	+$665.25	47% 691-793 (1484)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Hornetsavg 49¢	$980	$1.1K	+$70	57% 4084-3020 (7104)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Clippersavg 78.7¢	$2.8K	$783.1	+$255.19	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
NO NotJump	Clippersavg 50¢	$525	$525	+$0	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
SU suitcase6628CTR	Hornetsavg 49¢	$459.43	$492.25	+$32.82	66% 803-421 (1224)
MI micky456CTR	Hornetsavg 28¢	$233.8	$262.84	+$141.04	48% 654-715 (1369)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Hornetsavg 50¢	$202.07	$249.65	+$47.58	38% 1454-2390 (3844)
LI Limousin	Clippersavg 42¢	$66.08	$156.63	+$90.55	38% 1433-2333 (3766)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Hornetsavg 38.9¢	$304.21	$154.17	-$150.04	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 38.9¢	$280.89	$115.63	-$165.26
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 50.8¢	$23.33	$38.54	+$15.22
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Hornetsavg 52¢	$213.55	$82.1	-$2.45	48% 653-716 (1369)
TA takeormakeCTR	Hornetsavg 33.6¢	$177.04	$51.1	-$106.18	57% 3727-2840 (6567)
RN1ARB<$100	Hornetsavg 16.6¢	$37.51	$50.33	+$12.82	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 38¢	$11.4	$25.2	+$13.8
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 16.6¢	$26.11	$25.13	-$0.98
PA Pan9X<$100	Clippersavg 86.8¢	$88.09	$44.69	-$6.09	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
38 38791873984189	Clippersavg 87.7¢	$292.65	$26.82	+$11.27	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 52¢	$20.1	$20.87	+$0.77	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Hornetsavg 18¢	$9	$0.75	-$8.25	48% 2668-2892 (5560)

Flaznorp

Clippers

Invested

$2,056.14

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$396.48

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

omnibus-076daa

Clippers

Invested

$658.39

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$665.25

Record

47%

691-793 (1484)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Hornets

Invested

$980

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$70

Record

57%

4084-3020 (7104)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Clippers

Invested

$2,844.41

Value

$783.1

PnL

+$255.19

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

NotJump

Clippers

Invested

$525

Value

$525

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

suitcase6628CTR

Hornets

Invested

$459.43

Value

$492.25

PnL

+$32.82

Record

66%

803-421 (1224)

micky456CTR

Hornets

Invested

$233.8

Value

$262.84

PnL

+$141.04

Record

48%

654-715 (1369)

LightParadoxCTR

Hornets

Invested

$202.07

Value

$249.65

PnL

+$47.58

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

Limousin

Clippers

Invested

$66.08

Value

$156.63

PnL

+$90.55

Record

38%

1433-2333 (3766)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Hornets

Invested

$304.21

Value

$154.17

PnL

-$150.04

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

Both legs:

Hornets$280.8938.9¢-$165.26

Clippers$23.3350.8¢+$15.22

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Hornets

Invested

$213.55

Value

$82.1

PnL

-$2.45

Record

48%

653-716 (1369)

takeormakeCTR

Hornets

Invested

$177.04

Value

$51.1

PnL

-$106.18

Record

57%

3727-2840 (6567)

RN1ARB<$100

Hornets

Invested

$37.51

Value

$50.33

PnL

+$12.82

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

Both legs:

Clippers$11.438¢+$13.8

Hornets$26.1116.6¢-$0.98

Pan9X<$100

Clippers

Invested

$88.09

Value

$44.69

PnL

-$6.09

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

38791873984189

Clippers

Invested

$292.65

Value

$26.82

PnL

+$11.27

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$20.1

Value

$20.87

PnL

+$0.77

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$8.25

Record

48%

2668-2892 (5560)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

7 of 15 top traders (47%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.