Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 221.5

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 53¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 11

Over53¢Under47¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

-$160.86

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 52.5¢

+1% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

12 of 16 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over12 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares8,200

Combined PnL-$163.35

Under4 traders

Total Value$333.64

Total Shares635

Combined PnL+$2.49

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 53.5¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$41.11	56% 488-383 (871)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.5¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$51.48
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.9¢	$442.14	$452.51	+$10.37
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 51.6¢	$1.9K	$1.4K	-$9.59	51% 3172-3071 (6243)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 56¢	$2.1K	$1.2K	-$146.58	54% 217-188 (405)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 48.9¢	$633.2	$673.38	+$40.18	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 53.6¢	$604.46	$549.69	-$54.77	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.6¢	$344.69	$331.39	-$13.3
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.7¢	$259.77	$218.29	-$41.47
38 38791873984189	Overavg 52¢	$550.9	$419.81	-$32.02	48% 947-1017 (1964)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Overavg 47.8¢	$467.16	$349.8	+$24.41	28% 278-729 (1007)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.8¢	$202.12	$213.55	+$21.64
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.5¢	$133.48	$136.25	+$2.77
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 52.3¢	$211.17	$209.92	-$1.25	54% 1656-1433 (3089)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 49.1¢	$196.64	$198.32	+$1.68	28% 284-730 (1014)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Overavg 51¢	$188.38	$192.08	+$3.69	51% 3680-3509 (7189)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Overavg 52.4¢	$181.97	$180.44	-$1.53	62% 2344-1436 (3780)
SU suitcase6628	Overavg 51.6¢	$144.4	$145.6	+$1.2	65% 175-96 (271)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 46¢	$140.76	$130.05	-$10.71	30% 134-317 (451)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$66.74	$67.42	+$0.68	28% 274-715 (989)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 52.2¢	$104.69	$62.27	-$8.85	49% 443-470 (913)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 53¢	$46.64	$50.6	+$3.96	50% 182-180 (362)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$42.19	$42.19	+$0	48% 190-206 (396)
dips.	Overavg 53.6¢	$101.9	$33.8	-$1.85	42% 230-315 (545)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$27.98	$25.71	+$0.13	54% 383-321 (704)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,226.53

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$41.11

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

Both legs:

Over$1,784.3953.5¢-$51.48

Under$442.1446.9¢+$10.37

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$1,886.89

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$9.59

Record

51%

3172-3071 (6243)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$2,086.15

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$146.58

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$633.2

Value

$673.38

PnL

+$40.18

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$604.46

Value

$549.69

PnL

-$54.77

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

Both legs:

Over$344.6953.6¢-$13.3

Under$259.7757.7¢-$41.47

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$550.9

Value

$419.81

PnL

-$32.02

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

VenusianARB<$100

Over

Invested

$467.16

Value

$349.8

PnL

+$24.41

Record

28%

278-729 (1007)

Both legs:

Over$202.1247.8¢+$21.64

Under$133.4848.5¢+$2.77

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$211.17

Value

$209.92

PnL

-$1.25

Record

54%

1656-1433 (3089)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$196.64

Value

$198.32

PnL

+$1.68

Record

28%

284-730 (1014)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Over

Invested

$188.38

Value

$192.08

PnL

+$3.69

Record

51%

3680-3509 (7189)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Over

Invested

$181.97

Value

$180.44

PnL

-$1.53

Record

62%

2344-1436 (3780)

suitcase6628

Over

Invested

$144.4

Value

$145.6

PnL

+$1.2

Record

65%

175-96 (271)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$140.76

Value

$130.05

PnL

-$10.71

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.74

Value

$67.42

PnL

+$0.68

Record

28%

274-715 (989)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$104.69

Value

$62.27

PnL

-$8.85

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$46.64

Value

$50.6

PnL

+$3.96

Record

50%

182-180 (362)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$42.19

Value

$42.19

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

dips.

Over

Invested

$101.9

Value

$33.8

PnL

-$1.85

Record

42%

230-315 (545)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.98

Value

$25.71

PnL

+$0.13

Record

54%

383-321 (704)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

12 of 16 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.