Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 248.5

7 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Under (41%) · Under at 92¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Over8¢Under92¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 41%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$306.34

Smart Money Entry

67.5¢ → 92¢

+36% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 17 top traders (41%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over8%

Under92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$864.15

Total Shares1,235

Combined PnL+$16.16

Over10 traders

Total Value$145.33

Total Shares1,355

Combined PnL-$322.5

Under — 41%Over — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 66.9¢	$563.02	$563.47	+$0.45	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
PA Pan9X	Underavg 75¢	$128.88	$104.04	+$2.78	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 73.7¢	$105.98	$96.94	-$9.04	54% 1316-1100 (2416)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 55¢	$155.36	$69.07	+$16.56	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 31.5¢	$224.64	$49.98	-$174.66	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 44.9¢	$108.08	$36.09	-$71.99	36% 910-1584 (2494)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$52.37	$22.97	-$29.4	46% 2333-2789 (5122)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 74¢	$15.98	$16.22	+$0.24	37% 819-1385 (2204)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 25.8¢	$16.4	$13.65	-$2.75	53% 6885-6020 (12905)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 25.5¢	$33.19	$11.05	-$22.14	59% 3388-2384 (5772)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Underavg 60¢	$5.09	$7.77	+$2.67	50% 3678-3623 (7301)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Underavg 58¢	$4.14	$6.64	+$2.5	51% 467-449 (916)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$3.08	$3.64	+$0.56	45% 706-873 (1579)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$6.3	$2.55	-$3.75	64% 527-296 (823)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$7.04	$2.4	-$4.64	57% 3567-2709 (6276)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 43.7¢	$16.98	$2.37	-$12.37	53% 1179-1029 (2208)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Overavg 26.9¢	$2	$0.63	-$1.37	47% 469-528 (997)

RN1

Under

Invested

$563.02

Value

$563.47

PnL

+$0.45

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$128.88

Value

$104.04

PnL

+$2.78

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$105.98

Value

$96.94

PnL

-$9.04

Record

54%

1316-1100 (2416)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$155.36

Value

$69.07

PnL

+$16.56

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$224.64

Value

$49.98

PnL

-$174.66

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$108.08

Value

$36.09

PnL

-$71.99

Record

36%

910-1584 (2494)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$52.37

Value

$22.97

PnL

-$29.4

Record

46%

2333-2789 (5122)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$15.98

Value

$16.22

PnL

+$0.24

Record

37%

819-1385 (2204)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.4

Value

$13.65

PnL

-$2.75

Record

53%

6885-6020 (12905)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.19

Value

$11.05

PnL

-$22.14

Record

59%

3388-2384 (5772)

6512395314597884<$100

Under

Invested

$5.09

Value

$7.77

PnL

+$2.67

Record

50%

3678-3623 (7301)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Under

Invested

$4.14

Value

$6.64

PnL

+$2.5

Record

51%

467-449 (916)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.08

Value

$3.64

PnL

+$0.56

Record

45%

706-873 (1579)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.3

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$3.75

Record

64%

527-296 (823)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.04

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$4.64

Record

57%

3567-2709 (6276)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.98

Value

$2.37

PnL

-$12.37

Record

53%

1179-1029 (2208)

micky456CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$0.63

PnL

-$1.37

Record

47%

469-528 (997)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 17 top traders (41%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.