Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 7 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 45¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Over45¢Under55¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$81.82

Smart Money Entry

48.6¢ → 45¢

-8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 16 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,166

Combined PnL+$517.37

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,818

Combined PnL-$435.55

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 66¢	$965.83	$812.36	-$153.47	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 44.7¢	$762.36	$767.09	+$4.73	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 56.8¢	$251.95	$426.88	+$219.47	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
└ Over leg	Overavg 1.2¢	$5.77	$225.83	+$220.06
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.8¢	$207.56	$201.04	-$0.58
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 67.4¢	$1.0K	$405.54	-$524.48	44% 422-532 (954)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 32.5¢	$1.1K	$252.44	+$616.98	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
MI micky456ARB<$100	Underavg 76¢	$131.74	$139.67	+$7.93	47% 489-544 (1033)
└ Under leg	Underavg 76¢	$130.74	$94.67	-$36.07
└ Over leg	Overavg 1¢	$1	$45	+$44
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Underavg 36.8¢	$77.93	$120.35	+$42.42	37% 841-1416 (2257)
└ Under leg	Underavg 36.8¢	$62.38	$93.16	+$30.78
└ Over leg	Overavg 25.7¢	$15.55	$27.18	+$11.64
SU suitcase6628<$100	Underavg 75¢	$75	$99.5	+$24.5	64% 535-298 (833)
AN Anon455<$100	Underavg 27¢	$28.38	$57.24	+$28.87	50% 368-373 (741)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 6.2¢	$21.7	$54.48	+$54.61	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
TA takeormake<$100	Underavg 99¢	$35.75	$35.21	-$0.54	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Overavg 1¢	$0.74	$33.3	+$32.56	3% 7-259 (266)
US User7429<$100	Underavg 58¢	$28.42	$26.95	-$1.47	39% 296-462 (758)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 50.2¢	$17.05	$17.1	+$0.05	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Overavg 1¢	$0.36	$16.25	+$15.89	61% 1410-891 (2301)
balthazarCTR<$100	Overavg 2¢	$0.4	$9	+$8.6	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 32¢	$3.52	$6.05	+$2.53	45% 712-885 (1597)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 47.5¢	$62.2	$1.6	-$27.45	59% 3410-2403 (5813)
dips.<$100	Underavg 59¢	$1.13	$1.05	-$0.08	47% 877-973 (1850)

RN1

Under

Invested

$965.83

Value

$812.36

PnL

-$153.47

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$762.36

Value

$767.09

PnL

+$4.73

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$251.95

Value

$426.88

PnL

+$219.47

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

Both legs:

Over$5.771.2¢+$220.06

Under$207.5656.8¢-$0.58

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$1,047.67

Value

$405.54

PnL

-$524.48

Record

44%

422-532 (954)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$1,125

Value

$252.44

PnL

+$616.98

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

micky456ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$131.74

Value

$139.67

PnL

+$7.93

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

Both legs:

Under$130.7476¢-$36.07

Over$11¢+$44

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Under

Invested

$77.93

Value

$120.35

PnL

+$42.42

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

Both legs:

Under$62.3836.8¢+$30.78

Over$15.5525.7¢+$11.64

suitcase6628<$100

Under

Invested

$75

Value

$99.5

PnL

+$24.5

Record

64%

535-298 (833)

Anon455<$100

Under

Invested

$28.38

Value

$57.24

PnL

+$28.87

Record

50%

368-373 (741)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.7

Value

$54.48

PnL

+$54.61

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

takeormake<$100

Under

Invested

$35.75

Value

$35.21

PnL

-$0.54

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.74

Value

$33.3

PnL

+$32.56

Record

7-259 (266)

User7429<$100

Under

Invested

$28.42

Value

$26.95

PnL

-$1.47

Record

39%

296-462 (758)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$17.05

Value

$17.1

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

shiifooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.36

Value

$16.25

PnL

+$15.89

Record

61%

1410-891 (2301)

balthazarCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.4

Value

PnL

+$8.6

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$3.52

Value

$6.05

PnL

+$2.53

Record

45%

712-885 (1597)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$62.2

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$27.45

Record

59%

3410-2403 (5813)

dips.<$100

Under

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$0.08

Record

47%

877-973 (1850)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 16 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.