Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5

5 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (31%) · Under at 0.5¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 31%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$102.26

Smart Money Entry

57.4¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 16 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over11 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,026

Combined PnL+$679.96

Under5 traders

Total Value$146.71

Total Shares1,660

Combined PnL-$782.22

Over — 69%Under — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 47.1¢	$601.46	$713.29	+$159.81	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 14.9¢	$96.03	$262.36	+$301.23	54% 1316-1100 (2416)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 15.4¢	$33.39	$172.84	+$139.44	37% 819-1385 (2204)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Underavg 46.4¢	$109.75	$77.9	-$31.85	44% 418-527 (945)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 11¢	$16.85	$73.28	+$89.17	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 70.9¢	$60.3	$66.78	+$6.48	59% 3388-2384 (5772)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Overavg 49¢	$91.5	$61.62	-$29.88	51% 467-449 (916)
MI micky456<$100	Overavg 80¢	$49.2	$61.19	+$11.99	47% 469-528 (997)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Underavg 14¢	$24.04	$52.37	+$28.33	48% 246-262 (508)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 33¢	$50.57	$50.57	+$0	58% 3427-2519 (5946)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Overavg 62¢	$33.3	$32.23	-$1.07	50% 3678-3623 (7301)
dips.<$100	Overavg 87.5¢	$26.25	$23.88	+$2.64	47% 860-963 (1823)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 37.7¢	$38.4	$9.19	+$30.24	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Overavg 80¢	$8.18	$8.32	+$0.14	64% 527-296 (823)
RN1CTR	Underavg 66.3¢	$816.64	$6.78	-$809.86	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$3.6	$0.48	+$0.92	45% 706-873 (1579)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$601.46

Value

$713.29

PnL

+$159.81

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$96.03

Value

$262.36

PnL

+$301.23

Record

54%

1316-1100 (2416)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$33.39

Value

$172.84

PnL

+$139.44

Record

37%

819-1385 (2204)

justaluckydudeCTR

Under

Invested

$109.75

Value

$77.9

PnL

-$31.85

Record

44%

418-527 (945)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$16.85

Value

$73.28

PnL

+$89.17

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

$60.3

Value

$66.78

PnL

+$6.48

Record

59%

3388-2384 (5772)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Over

Invested

$91.5

Value

$61.62

PnL

-$29.88

Record

51%

467-449 (916)

micky456<$100

Over

Invested

$49.2

Value

$61.19

PnL

+$11.99

Record

47%

469-528 (997)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.04

Value

$52.37

PnL

+$28.33

Record

48%

246-262 (508)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$50.57

Value

$50.57

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

3427-2519 (5946)

6512395314597884<$100

Over

Invested

$33.3

Value

$32.23

PnL

-$1.07

Record

50%

3678-3623 (7301)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$26.25

Value

$23.88

PnL

+$2.64

Record

47%

860-963 (1823)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$38.4

Value

$9.19

PnL

+$30.24

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

suitcase6628<$100

Over

Invested

$8.18

Value

$8.32

PnL

+$0.14

Record

64%

527-296 (823)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$816.64

Value

$6.78

PnL

-$809.86

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.6

Value

$0.48

PnL

+$0.92

Record

45%

706-873 (1579)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 16 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.