Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 234.5

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Over (65%) · Over at 99¢ · $41K held · ended Nov 14

Over99¢Under1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 65%

Total Value

$41.4K

Combined PnL

$15.8K

Smart Money Entry

46.7¢ → 99¢

+112% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 17 top traders (65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over99%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over11 traders

Total Value$40.1K

Total Shares40,462

Combined PnL+$20.8K

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares11,483

Combined PnL$-5.1K

Over — 65%Under — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

65% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 65% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Overavg 46¢	$10.0K	$21.6K	+$11.6K	51% 3833-3624 (7457)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 47¢	$4.6K	$9.7K	+$5.1K	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
MI micky456	Overavg 46¢	$1.1K	$2.4K	+$1.3K	47% 489-544 (1033)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 49.8¢	$1.1K	$2.1K	+$1.1K	44% 422-532 (954)
TA takeormake	Overavg 47.4¢	$724.14	$1.5K	+$788.17	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 45.1¢	$469.98	$1.0K	+$553.18	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
RN1	Overavg 52.6¢	$853.24	$976.8	+$123.55	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 47.4¢	$811.03	$757.81	-$53.22	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
LU luckycat888888CTR	Underavg 53¢	$5.3K	$500	$-4.8K	26% 39-112 (151)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 35.2¢	$123.7	$346.07	+$222.37	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 66.8¢	$266.91	$200.9	+$75.31	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
SE sentrio	Overavg 47.4¢	$84.92	$177.46	+$92.53	43% 920-1244 (2164)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 63.4¢	$99.54	$76.23	+$29.36	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Underavg 54¢	$128.52	$11.9	-$116.62	49% 517-539 (1056)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 25.9¢	$33.65	$7.85	-$25.8	37% 841-1416 (2257)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$60.72	$6.07	-$54.65	41% 146-213 (359)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$16.83	$1.65	-$15.18	49% 1883-1987 (3870)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Over

Invested

$10,033.06

Value

$21.6K

PnL

+$11.6K

Record

51%

3833-3624 (7457)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$4,598.13

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$5.1K

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

micky456

Over

Invested

$1,119.18

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$1,071.09

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

44%

422-532 (954)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$724.14

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$788.17

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$469.98

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$553.18

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

RN1

Over

Invested

$853.24

Value

$976.8

PnL

+$123.55

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$811.03

Value

$757.81

PnL

-$53.22

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

luckycat888888CTR

Under

Invested

$5,295.62

Value

$500

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

26%

39-112 (151)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$123.7

Value

$346.07

PnL

+$222.37

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$266.91

Value

$200.9

PnL

+$75.31

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

sentrio

Over

Invested

$84.92

Value

$177.46

PnL

+$92.53

Record

43%

920-1244 (2164)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$99.54

Value

$76.23

PnL

+$29.36

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Under

Invested

$128.52

Value

$11.9

PnL

-$116.62

Record

49%

517-539 (1056)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.65

Value

$7.85

PnL

-$25.8

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$60.72

Value

$6.07

PnL

-$54.65

Record

41%

146-213 (359)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.83

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$15.18

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 17 top traders (65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

65% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 65% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.