Spread: Hawks (-8.5)

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (80%) · Bulls at 84¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Hawks16¢Bulls84¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 80%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$111.47

Smart Money Entry

82.4¢ → 84¢

+2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hawks16%

Bulls84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls8 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,396

Combined PnL-$64.94

Hawks2 traders

Total Value$23.81

Total Shares234

Combined PnL-$46.53

Bulls — 80%Hawks — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBulls 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Bullsavg 73.1¢	$348.92	$385.91	+$36.98	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Bullsavg 88.4¢	$419.85	$359	-$60.85	56% 4019-3135 (7154)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Bullsavg 84¢	$210	$210	+$0	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
FL Flaznorp	Bullsavg 99¢	$133.49	$98.13	-$35.36	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Bullsavg 89.7¢	$62.82	$69.69	+$6.86	59% 3410-2403 (5813)
TA takeormake<$100	Bullsavg 81¢	$83.74	$66.32	-$17.42	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
PA Pan9X<$100	Bullsavg 78¢	$35.28	$34.18	-$0.8	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
38 38791873984189CTR	Hawksavg 19.5¢	$163.11	$18.46	-$37.22	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Bullsavg 57¢	$11.93	$17.58	+$5.65	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Hawksavg 20¢	$14.65	$5.35	-$9.3	47% 489-544 (1033)

RN1

Bulls

Invested

$348.92

Value

$385.91

PnL

+$36.98

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Bulls

Invested

$419.85

Value

$359

PnL

-$60.85

Record

56%

4019-3135 (7154)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Bulls

Invested

$210

Value

$210

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

Flaznorp

Bulls

Invested

$133.49

Value

$98.13

PnL

-$35.36

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Bulls

Invested

$62.82

Value

$69.69

PnL

+$6.86

Record

59%

3410-2403 (5813)

takeormake<$100

Bulls

Invested

$83.74

Value

$66.32

PnL

-$17.42

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

Pan9X<$100

Bulls

Invested

$35.28

Value

$34.18

PnL

-$0.8

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

38791873984189CTR

Hawks

Invested

$163.11

Value

$18.46

PnL

-$37.22

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Bulls

Invested

$11.93

Value

$17.58

PnL

+$5.65

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

micky456CTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$14.65

Value

$5.35

PnL

-$9.3

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBulls 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.