Spread: Hawks (-2.5)

5 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (31%) · Bulls at 99¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 14

Hawks2¢Bulls98¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 31%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.9K

Combined PnL

$1.9K

Smart Money Entry

56.1¢ → 98.5¢

+75% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

5 of 16 top traders (31%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hawks2%

Bulls99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls5 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares12,134

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Hawks11 traders

Total Value$731.3

Total Shares2,641

Combined PnL-$185.75

Bulls — 31%Hawks — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHawks 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrHawks 80% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Hawks 71% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU luckycat888888	Bullsavg 55.8¢	$5.6K	$7.7K	+$2.1K	25% 37-112 (149)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Hawksavg 44.5¢	$4.6K	$2.9K	$-1.0K	51% 2364-2297 (4661)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 44.5¢	$3.3K	$1.8K	$-1.4K
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 46.8¢	$690.31	$1.1K	+$439.04
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Bullsavg 80.3¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$351.86	50% 358-364 (722)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 53.6¢	$744.47	$666.1	-$78.37
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 80.3¢	$776.45	$502.96	-$273.49
RN1	Bullsavg 55¢	$767.1	$725.7	-$41.4	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Bullsavg 42.1¢	$408.45	$465.65	+$57.2	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 42.1¢	$324.21	$346.85	+$22.64
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 39¢	$84.24	$118.8	+$34.56
TA takeormakeCTR	Hawksavg 28.7¢	$585.34	$399.54	-$185.8	58% 3427-2519 (5946)
JU justaluckydude	Bullsavg 66.3¢	$242.47	$340.06	+$97.59	44% 418-527 (945)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Hawksavg 37¢	$343.63	$303.02	-$40.61	50% 3678-3623 (7301)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 46¢	$92	$157	+$65
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 37¢	$251.63	$146.02	-$105.61
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Hawksavg 38.2¢	$262.27	$288.49	+$26.22	37% 819-1385 (2204)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 38.2¢	$141.92	$165.47	+$23.54
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 54.3¢	$120.35	$123.02	+$2.67
CA CandleHammerDrums	Bullsavg 59¢	$184.98	$176.36	-$8.62	48% 462-493 (955)
alpheclabs2CTR	Hawksavg 42¢	$122.88	$160.91	+$38.03	45% 258-310 (568)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Hawksavg 43.1¢	$697.7	$143	-$339.91	54% 1316-1100 (2416)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 89.8¢	$74.96	$77.24	-$36.74
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 43.1¢	$378.13	$65.76	-$303.16
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Hawksavg 45¢	$70.63	$86.49	+$15.86	43% 915-1235 (2150)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Bullsavg 55¢	$39.82	$37.65	-$2.17	40% 144-212 (356)
PA Pan9XCTR	Hawksavg 28.9¢	$190.93	$18.56	+$7.64	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
38 38791873984189CTR	Hawksavg 36.5¢	$335.17	$18.39	-$32.23	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Hawksavg 42.1¢	$40.15	$16.68	-$23.47	47% 469-528 (997)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Hawksavg 33.6¢	$21	$12.81	-$8.19	53% 6885-6020 (12905)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Hawksavg 53¢	$11.23	$11.66	+$0.42	51% 467-449 (916)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Hawksavg 64¢	$5.12	$4.4	-$0.72	45% 224-272 (496)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Hawksavg 17¢	$0.68	$1.14	+$0.46	53% 1556-1404 (2960)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Hawksavg 12¢	$5.47	$0.71	+$2.24	59% 3388-2384 (5772)

luckycat888888

Bulls

Invested

$5,583.77

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

25%

37-112 (149)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$4,609.75

Value

$2.9K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

51%

2364-2297 (4661)

Both legs:

Hawks$3,334.8744.5¢$-1.4K

Bulls$690.3146.8¢+$439.04

Anon455ARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$1,520.92

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$351.86

Record

50%

358-364 (722)

Both legs:

Hawks$744.4753.6¢-$78.37

Bulls$776.4580.3¢-$273.49

RN1

Bulls

Invested

$767.1

Value

$725.7

PnL

-$41.4

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$408.45

Value

$465.65

PnL

+$57.2

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

Both legs:

Bulls$324.2142.1¢+$22.64

Hawks$84.2439¢+$34.56

takeormakeCTR

Hawks

Invested

$585.34

Value

$399.54

PnL

-$185.8

Record

58%

3427-2519 (5946)

justaluckydude

Bulls

Invested

$242.47

Value

$340.06

PnL

+$97.59

Record

44%

418-527 (945)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$343.63

Value

$303.02

PnL

-$40.61

Record

50%

3678-3623 (7301)

Both legs:

Bulls$9246¢+$65

Hawks$251.6337¢-$105.61

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$262.27

Value

$288.49

PnL

+$26.22

Record

37%

819-1385 (2204)

Both legs:

Hawks$141.9238.2¢+$23.54

Bulls$120.3554.3¢+$2.67

CandleHammerDrums

Bulls

Invested

$184.98

Value

$176.36

PnL

-$8.62

Record

48%

462-493 (955)

alpheclabs2CTR

Hawks

Invested

$122.88

Value

$160.91

PnL

+$38.03

Record

45%

258-310 (568)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$697.7

Value

$143

PnL

-$339.91

Record

54%

1316-1100 (2416)

Both legs:

Bulls$74.9689.8¢-$36.74

Hawks$378.1343.1¢-$303.16

sentrioCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$70.63

Value

$86.49

PnL

+$15.86

Record

43%

915-1235 (2150)

NatoAlfista<$100

Bulls

Invested

$39.82

Value

$37.65

PnL

-$2.17

Record

40%

144-212 (356)

Pan9XCTR

Hawks

Invested

$190.93

Value

$18.56

PnL

+$7.64

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

38791873984189CTR

Hawks

Invested

$335.17

Value

$18.39

PnL

-$32.23

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

micky456CTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$40.15

Value

$16.68

PnL

-$23.47

Record

47%

469-528 (997)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$21

Value

$12.81

PnL

-$8.19

Record

53%

6885-6020 (12905)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$11.23

Value

$11.66

PnL

+$0.42

Record

51%

467-449 (916)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$5.12

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$0.72

Record

45%

224-272 (496)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$0.68

Value

$1.14

PnL

+$0.46

Record

53%

1556-1404 (2960)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$5.47

Value

$0.71

PnL

+$2.24

Record

59%

3388-2384 (5772)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

5 of 16 top traders (31%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHawks 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrHawks 80% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Hawks 71% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.