LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 3 Winner

51 of 97 top Polymarket traders hold T1 (53%) · T1 at 79¢ · $1.0M held · ends Nov 9

Bilibili Gaming22¢T178¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

T1 53%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0M

Combined PnL

$-13.5K

Smart Money Entry

53.3¢ → 78.5¢

+47% since entry · 51 traders

Research grade

NeutralT1 at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

51 of 97 top traders (53%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed46 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bilibili Gaming22%

T179%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

T151 traders

Total Value$635.7K

Total Shares879,093

Combined PnL+$153.6K

Bilibili Gaming46 traders

Total Value$232.4K

Total Shares803,031

Combined PnL$-167.0K

T1 — 53%Bilibili Gaming — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
zb8	T1avg 59.7¢	$131.8K	$171.1K	+$39.3K	53% 668-587 (1255)
vtcchampion52	T1avg 47.6¢	$53.5K	$88.8K	+$35.3K	49% 1304-1349 (2653)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	T1avg 45.5¢	$25.2K	$44.6K	+$19.4K	53% 6645-5939 (12584)
US Username2133ARB<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 58.6¢	$51.3K	$44.4K	$-6.8K	60% 114-75 (189)
└ T1 leg	T1avg 57.2¢	$25.5K	$32.7K	+$7.3K
└ Bilibili Gaming leg	Bilibili Gamingavg 58.6¢	$25.8K	$11.7K	$-14.1K
verifly	T1avg 48.2¢	$25.2K	$42.5K	+$17.3K	35% 160-291 (451)
dodsterbotCTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 50¢	$37.8K	$36.7K	$-1.1K	46% 672-791 (1463)
SI SineNooneEI	T1avg 53¢	$21.2K	$32.2K	+$11.0K	53% 982-856 (1838)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 47¢	$20.9K	$31.3K	+$10.4K	54% 1455-1257 (2712)
BR brobrobrobrobroARB<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 50.8¢	$30.1K	$28.7K	$-1.4K	62% 264-161 (425)
└ T1 leg	T1avg 50.3¢	$14.2K	$22.9K	+$8.8K
└ Bilibili Gaming leg	Bilibili Gamingavg 50.8¢	$15.9K	$5.8K	$-10.1K
YO yong32ARB<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 54.7¢	$46.5K	$28.5K	$-10.0K	69% 62-28 (90)
└ T1 leg	T1avg 46.2¢	$11.1K	$19.8K	+$9.0K
└ Bilibili Gaming leg	Bilibili Gamingavg 54.7¢	$27.3K	$8.7K	$-19.0K
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	T1avg 52.3¢	$47.7K	$27.9K	$-7.9K	51% 1025-997 (2022)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	T1avg 50.6¢	$18.7K	$22.4K	+$3.7K	53% 15513-13750 (29263)
solo88888	T1avg 79.3¢	$27.3K	$21.7K	$-2.7K	41% 192-272 (464)
0X 0x11963E4f3548c5Cbdcce3a62F9fF6b42975efE97-1768163136502	T1avg 37¢	$8.5K	$17.8K	+$9.3K	35% 245-447 (692)
LI LinkE5CTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 50.9¢	$45.0K	$17.3K	$-27.8K	47% 770-855 (1625)
T8 t89e4ygf6	T1avg 50.5¢	$10.3K	$16.5K	+$6.1K	44% 107-136 (243)
DamwonChampions2026CTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 55.7¢	$41.8K	$15.4K	$-26.4K	53% 2411-2138 (4549)
minjiCTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 58.2¢	$43.7K	$14.6K	$-29.0K	52% 2087-1917 (4004)
TA takeormake	T1avg 55¢	$8.7K	$11.7K	+$3.0K	52% 5562-5184 (10746)
SK skadiiCTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 49.8¢	$10.4K	$10.2K	+$1.6K	48% 682-733 (1415)
WH white-rabbitARB<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 41.2¢	$13.3K	$10.1K	$-3.2K	52% 1949-1789 (3738)
└ Bilibili Gaming leg	Bilibili Gamingavg 41.2¢	$10.7K	$5.3K	$-5.4K
└ T1 leg	T1avg 43.7¢	$2.6K	$4.8K	+$2.2K
0xheavy888CTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 59.1¢	$23.6K	$9.4K	$-14.2K	56% 8780-6967 (15747)
SC Scrip-scripCTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 49.5¢	$19.8K	$9.4K	$-10.4K	54% 14-12 (26)
AL AlmostNoAwareness	T1avg 79.9¢	$12.7K	$9.1K	$-2.6K	61% 123-79 (202)
TE TeGeeLP	T1avg 41.5¢	$4.7K	$8.9K	+$4.1K	53% 83-75 (158)

zb8

Invested

$131,820.64

Value

$171.1K

PnL

+$39.3K

Record

53%

668-587 (1255)

vtcchampion52

Invested

$53,472.57

Value

$88.8K

PnL

+$35.3K

Record

49%

1304-1349 (2653)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Invested

$25,242.56

Value

$44.6K

PnL

+$19.4K

Record

53%

6645-5939 (12584)

Username2133ARB<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$51,251.5

Value

$44.4K

PnL

$-6.8K

Record

60%

114-75 (189)

Both legs:

T1$25,475.4357.2¢+$7.3K

Bilibili Gaming$25,776.0658.6¢$-14.1K

verifly

Invested

$25,160.76

Value

$42.5K

PnL

+$17.3K

Record

35%

160-291 (451)

dodsterbotCTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$37,788

Value

$36.7K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

46%

672-791 (1463)

SineNooneEI

Invested

$21,199.97

Value

$32.2K

PnL

+$11.0K

Record

53%

982-856 (1838)

TAIWANNUMBERONECTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$20,888.68

Value

$31.3K

PnL

+$10.4K

Record

54%

1455-1257 (2712)

brobrobrobrobroARB<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$30,077.18

Value

$28.7K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

62%

264-161 (425)

Both legs:

T1$14,161.650.3¢+$8.8K

Bilibili Gaming$15,915.5850.8¢$-10.1K

yong32ARB<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$46,474.74

Value

$28.5K

PnL

$-10.0K

Record

69%

62-28 (90)

Both legs:

T1$11,068.6646.2¢+$9.0K

Bilibili Gaming$27,331.8554.7¢$-19.0K

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Invested

$47,704.87

Value

$27.9K

PnL

$-7.9K

Record

51%

1025-997 (2022)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$18,739.33

Value

$22.4K

PnL

+$3.7K

Record

53%

15513-13750 (29263)

solo88888

Invested

$27,258.25

Value

$21.7K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

41%

192-272 (464)

0x11963E4f3548c5Cbdcce3a62F9fF6b42975efE97-1768163136502

Invested

$8,490.72

Value

$17.8K

PnL

+$9.3K

Record

35%

245-447 (692)

LinkE5CTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$45,042.55

Value

$17.3K

PnL

$-27.8K

Record

47%

770-855 (1625)

t89e4ygf6

Invested

$10,335.63

Value

$16.5K

PnL

+$6.1K

Record

44%

107-136 (243)

DamwonChampions2026CTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$41,787.56

Value

$15.4K

PnL

$-26.4K

Record

53%

2411-2138 (4549)

minjiCTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$43,673.25

Value

$14.6K

PnL

$-29.0K

Record

52%

2087-1917 (4004)

takeormake

Invested

$8,665.04

Value

$11.7K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

52%

5562-5184 (10746)

skadiiCTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$10,369.76

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

48%

682-733 (1415)

white-rabbitARB<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$13,326.84

Value

$10.1K

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

52%

1949-1789 (3738)

Both legs:

Bilibili Gaming$10,706.8541.2¢$-5.4K

T1$2,62043.7¢+$2.2K

0xheavy888CTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$23,624.15

Value

$9.4K

PnL

$-14.2K

Record

56%

8780-6967 (15747)

Scrip-scripCTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$19,799.94

Value

$9.4K

PnL

$-10.4K

Record

54%

14-12 (26)

AlmostNoAwareness

Invested

$12,728.55

Value

$9.1K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

61%

123-79 (202)

TeGeeLP

Invested

$4,749.32

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$4.1K

Record

53%

83-75 (158)

Research grade

NeutralT1 at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

51 of 97 top traders (53%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed46 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that T1 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.