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1C
No settled consensus market yet · PM monthly #496 · holds 2 consensus positions
0x1c29705c...4c5a167ePolymarket
Consensus PnL
$0
Source
PM monthly #496
Record (90 d)
207/451 · 46%
Trades
0
Markets
0
Volume
$0
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 2 on the consensus side (0%)- Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5)T1 $19K · now 31¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Karmine Corp)
- LoL: Karmine Corp vs T1 (BO5) - Worlds PlayoffsKarmine Corp $3.4K · now 19¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (T1)
Specialties
350 settled consensus markets · held side won 47% at an average entry of 46¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where skadii's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 27%(won 15% of 95)
- 30–50¢: 31%(won 42% of 109)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 65% of 89)
- 70¢ and up: 16%(won 79% of 57)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.