Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (62%) · Over at 52¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 8

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 62%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.8K

Combined PnL

$120.68

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 51.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 13 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares9,131

Combined PnL+$57.57

Over8 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares13,278

Combined PnL+$63.11

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrUnder 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 49¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	+$38.81	49% 507-531 (1038)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 50¢	$6.1K	$3.2K	+$29.2	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
LooksMaxing101	Overavg 53.2¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$20	51% 900-866 (1766)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$16.36	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$729.75	$709.1	-$20.65
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$412.42	$416.71	+$4.3
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 48.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$10.04	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.3¢	$684.16	$686.9	+$2.74
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$451.58	$438.8	-$12.78
GC GC-P	Overavg 51.3¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$2.08	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 48¢	$586.08	$604.4	+$18.32	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 50¢	$410.34	$414.45	+$4.1	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
LI Limousin	Overavg 50¢	$271.88	$137.3	+$1.36	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Overavg 51.1¢	$82.48	$81.46	-$1.02	59% 7304-5065 (12369)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$66.81	$67.27	+$0.46	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 50.5¢	$1.7K	$42.22	+$47.75	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 51.2¢	$86.47	$27.14	-$0.36	57% 24613-18229 (42842)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 48.8¢	$15.14	$15.04	-$0.11	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$12.23	$12.31	+$0.08	48% 70219-75923 (146142)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$3,792.37

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$38.81

Record

49%

507-531 (1038)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$6,141.7

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$29.2

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

LooksMaxing101

Over

Invested

$2,129.92

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$20

Record

51%

900-866 (1766)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,142.17

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$16.36

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Both legs:

Over$729.7553¢-$20.65

Under$412.4248¢+$4.3

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,135.74

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$10.04

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Both legs:

Under$684.1648.3¢+$2.74

Over$451.5853¢-$12.78

GC-P

Over

Invested

$1,014.88

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$2.08

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$586.08

Value

$604.4

PnL

+$18.32

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$410.34

Value

$414.45

PnL

+$4.1

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

Limousin

Over

Invested

$271.88

Value

$137.3

PnL

+$1.36

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Over

Invested

$82.48

Value

$81.46

PnL

-$1.02

Record

59%

7304-5065 (12369)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.81

Value

$67.27

PnL

+$0.46

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$1,668.86

Value

$42.22

PnL

+$47.75

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$86.47

Value

$27.14

PnL

-$0.36

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.14

Value

$15.04

PnL

-$0.11

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.23

Value

$12.31

PnL

+$0.08

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 13 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrUnder 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.