Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on November 5?

17 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 67¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$75.86

Smart Money Entry

48.6¢ → 66.5¢

+37% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 17 top traders (100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$371.29

Total Shares616

Combined PnL+$75.86

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 37%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 37% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Yesavg 50.8¢	$561.26	$458.32	-$39.6	44% 810-1039 (1849)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50.8¢	$387.51	$304.97	-$82.54
└ No leg	Noavg 43.2¢	$110.4	$153.34	+$42.94
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 59.8¢	$673.07	$150.01	-$64.56	15% 498-2922 (3420)
└ No leg	Noavg 48.7¢	$73	$90	+$17
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59.8¢	$89.7	$60.01	-$81.56
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 47.1¢	$53.85	$68.53	+$14.68	46% 10331-12028 (22359)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 48.3¢	$54.55	$67.76	+$13.21	77% 12654-3874 (16528)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Yesavg 51.1¢	$68.77	$62.82	-$5.95	54% 10084-8706 (18790)
└ No leg	Noavg 56¢	$31.25	$33.46	+$2.21
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51.1¢	$37.52	$29.36	-$8.16
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 50.9¢	$26.3	$31.03	+$4.73	61% 14883-9337 (24220)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 50.2¢	$25.08	$30	+$4.92	51% 3701-3552 (7253)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 51.5¢	$21.78	$25.39	+$3.62	47% 1691-1873 (3564)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 49.3¢	$16.52	$20.13	+$3.6	55% 4438-3636 (8074)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 51.2¢	$15.38	$18	+$2.63	47% 8377-9565 (17942)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 41.3¢	$29.95	$17.44	+$10.41	58% 19680-14468 (34148)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 47.9¢	$13.17	$16.5	+$3.33	42% 1202-1687 (2889)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 49.9¢	$13.17	$15.85	+$2.68	40% 1094-1616 (2710)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 49.7¢	$11.93	$14.41	+$2.48	47% 2220-2477 (4697)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 44¢	$8.8	$12	+$3.2	53% 29396-26298 (55694)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 47.2¢	$9.45	$12	+$2.55	53% 22809-20010 (42819)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 47.6¢	$8.65	$10.91	+$2.26	39% 1067-1680 (2747)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 51.2¢	$4.61	$5.4	+$0.79	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 45¢	$2.25	$3	+$0.75	50% 706-713 (1419)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 59.2¢	$2.9	$2.94	+$0.04	59% 11938-8372 (20310)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$561.26

Value

$458.32

PnL

-$39.6

Record

44%

810-1039 (1849)

Both legs:

Yes$387.5150.8¢-$82.54

No$110.443.2¢+$42.94

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$673.07

Value

$150.01

PnL

-$64.56

Record

15%

498-2922 (3420)

Both legs:

No$7348.7¢+$17

Yes$89.759.8¢-$81.56

god83743894<$100

Invested

$53.85

Value

$68.53

PnL

+$14.68

Record

46%

10331-12028 (22359)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$54.55

Value

$67.76

PnL

+$13.21

Record

77%

12654-3874 (16528)

PoligarchARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.77

Value

$62.82

PnL

-$5.95

Record

54%

10084-8706 (18790)

Both legs:

No$31.2556¢+$2.21

Yes$37.5251.1¢-$8.16

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$26.3

Value

$31.03

PnL

+$4.73

Record

61%

14883-9337 (24220)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$25.08

Value

$30

PnL

+$4.92

Record

51%

3701-3552 (7253)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$21.78

Value

$25.39

PnL

+$3.62

Record

47%

1691-1873 (3564)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$16.52

Value

$20.13

PnL

+$3.6

Record

55%

4438-3636 (8074)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$15.38

Value

$18

PnL

+$2.63

Record

47%

8377-9565 (17942)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$29.95

Value

$17.44

PnL

+$10.41

Record

58%

19680-14468 (34148)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$13.17

Value

$16.5

PnL

+$3.33

Record

42%

1202-1687 (2889)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$13.17

Value

$15.85

PnL

+$2.68

Record

40%

1094-1616 (2710)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$11.93

Value

$14.41

PnL

+$2.48

Record

47%

2220-2477 (4697)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$8.8

Value

$12

PnL

+$3.2

Record

53%

29396-26298 (55694)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$9.45

Value

$12

PnL

+$2.55

Record

53%

22809-20010 (42819)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$8.65

Value

$10.91

PnL

+$2.26

Record

39%

1067-1680 (2747)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$4.61

Value

$5.4

PnL

+$0.79

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$2.25

Value

PnL

+$0.75

Record

50%

706-713 (1419)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.94

PnL

+$0.04

Record

59%

11938-8372 (20310)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 17 top traders (100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 37%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 37% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.