Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on November 6?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 54¢ · $76 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$76.46
$6.8
Research grade
NeutralNo at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.3¢ | $56.18 | $47.44 | +$6.55 | 41% 832-1198 (2030) |
 Roflan-ludoman<$100 | Noavg 57.4¢ | $16.09 | $16.81 | +$0.73 | 62% 658-398 (1056) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 58.5¢ | $9.49 | $8.76 | -$0.73 | 58% 21143-15371 (36514) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $3.2 | $3.45 | +$0.26 | 54% 10546-9124 (19670) |
Invested
$56.18
Value
$47.44
PnL
+$6.55
Record
41%
832-1198 (2030)
Roflan-ludoman<$100Invested
$16.09
Value
$16.81
PnL
+$0.73
Record
62%
658-398 (1056)
Invested
$9.49
Value
$8.76
PnL
-$0.73
Record
58%
21143-15371 (36514)
Invested
$3.2
Value
$3.45
PnL
+$0.26
Record
54%
10546-9124 (19670)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.