Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on November 2?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 99¢ · $233 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$232.63
$11.14
92.7¢ → 98.5¢
+6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock | Noavg 89.6¢ | $122.59 | $132.93 | +$10.35 | 56% 14530-11397 (25927) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $29.58 | $29.16 | -$0.42 | 61% 21444-13699 (35143) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $25.18 | $25.11 | -$0.07 | 48% 349-380 (729) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $19.78 | $19.71 | -$0.07 | 82% 2408-531 (2939) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $17.88 | $19.53 | +$1.65 | 52% 5052-4729 (9781) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $4.93 | -$0.02 | 51% 1004-958 (1962) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $1.53 | $1.26 | -$0.27 | 58% 1980-1418 (3398) |
Invested
$122.59
Value
$132.93
PnL
+$10.35
Record
56%
14530-11397 (25927)
balthazar<$100Invested
$29.58
Value
$29.16
PnL
-$0.42
Record
61%
21444-13699 (35143)
Invested
$25.18
Value
$25.11
PnL
-$0.07
Record
48%
349-380 (729)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.78
Value
$19.71
PnL
-$0.07
Record
82%
2408-531 (2939)
Invested
$17.88
Value
$19.53
PnL
+$1.65
Record
52%
5052-4729 (9781)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$4.93
PnL
-$0.02
Record
51%
1004-958 (1962)
Invested
$1.53
Value
$1.26
PnL
-$0.27
Record
58%
1980-1418 (3398)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.