Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on November 4?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 90¢ · $220 held · ended Nov 4

Yes10¢No90¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$219.57

Combined PnL

$38.09

Smart Money Entry

88.4¢ → 89.9¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$136.67

Total Shares146

Combined PnL+$37.87

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$0.22

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$85.1	$80.9	-$4.19	58% 2490-1820 (4310)
└ No leg	Noavg 96.2¢	$62.55	$60.4	-$2.15
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 11¢	$22.54	$20.5	-$2.04
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 91.6¢	$68.71	$69.7	+$0.98	78% 12472-3601 (16073)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 88.2¢	$26.21	$26.68	+$0.47	54% 9970-8663 (18633)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.6¢	$77.07	$13.92	+$0.09	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 92¢	$9.4	$9.5	+$0.1	47% 2130-2428 (4558)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 47.5¢	$24.34	$8.57	+$36.24	55% 4405-3598 (8003)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 91.3¢	$4.57	$4.65	+$0.08	50% 634-639 (1273)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$13.42	$3.66	-$0.09	39% 1066-1669 (2735)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.9¢	$1.78	$2	+$0.22	18% 4276-20026 (24302)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$85.1

Value

$80.9

PnL

-$4.19

Record

58%

2490-1820 (4310)

Both legs:

No$62.5596.2¢-$2.15

Yes$22.5411¢-$2.04

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$68.71

Value

$69.7

PnL

+$0.98

Record

78%

12472-3601 (16073)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$26.21

Value

$26.68

PnL

+$0.47

Record

54%

9970-8663 (18633)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$77.07

Value

$13.92

PnL

+$0.09

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

47%

2130-2428 (4558)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$24.34

Value

$8.57

PnL

+$36.24

Record

55%

4405-3598 (8003)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$4.57

Value

$4.65

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

634-639 (1273)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$13.42

Value

$3.66

PnL

-$0.09

Record

39%

1066-1669 (2735)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.78

Value

PnL

+$0.22

Record

18%

4276-20026 (24302)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.3%

89.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.