Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (79%). 11 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on November 5?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 21¢ · $226 held · ends Nov 5

Yes79¢No21¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$225.81

Combined PnL

-$6.87

Smart Money Entry

45.1¢ → 21¢

-53% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 79%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes79%

No21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$100.93

Total Shares111

Combined PnL+$15.31

No11 traders

Total Value$124.88

Total Shares326

Combined PnL-$22.18

Yes — 15%No — 85%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 51.2¢	$63.34	$80.73	+$17.39	54% 10126-8753 (18879)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 42.5¢	$85	$78	-$7	53% 29396-26298 (55694)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 63.1¢	$32.63	$20.2	-$2.08	15% 498-2922 (3420)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 56.1¢	$34.77	$12.48	-$5.47	59% 11938-8372 (20310)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 55.5¢	$8.95	$6.29	-$2.66	58% 19680-14468 (34148)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 41.4¢	$6.26	$5.89	-$0.37	39% 1067-1680 (2747)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$6.66	$4.99	-$1.66	50% 706-713 (1419)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 38.2¢	$3.82	$3.9	+$0.08	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 62.2¢	$6.22	$3.9	-$2.32	32% 2587-5457 (8044)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$3.39	$3.57	+$0.18	55% 4438-3636 (8074)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 37.6¢	$4.56	$2.31	-$2.26	48% 1698-1875 (3573)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$2.5	$1.99	-$0.51	47% 2220-2477 (4697)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$1.77	$1.57	-$0.2	43% 3155-4197 (7352)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.34

Value

$80.73

PnL

+$17.39

Record

54%

10126-8753 (18879)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$85

Value

$78

PnL

-$7

Record

53%

29396-26298 (55694)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.63

Value

$20.2

PnL

-$2.08

Record

15%

498-2922 (3420)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$34.77

Value

$12.48

PnL

-$5.47

Record

59%

11938-8372 (20310)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$8.95

Value

$6.29

PnL

-$2.66

Record

58%

19680-14468 (34148)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$6.26

Value

$5.89

PnL

-$0.37

Record

39%

1067-1680 (2747)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$6.66

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$1.66

Record

50%

706-713 (1419)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$3.82

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$0.08

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$6.22

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$2.32

Record

32%

2587-5457 (8044)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$3.39

Value

$3.57

PnL

+$0.18

Record

55%

4438-3636 (8074)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$4.56

Value

$2.31

PnL

-$2.26

Record

48%

1698-1875 (3573)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$1.99

PnL

-$0.51

Record

47%

2220-2477 (4697)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$1.77

Value

$1.57

PnL

-$0.2

Record

43%

3155-4197 (7352)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 79%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.9%

21.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$337.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

437.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.