Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on November 3?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $98 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$97.64
-$0.64
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $44.16 | $44.32 | +$0.16 | 44% 2775-3595 (6370) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $29.43 | $28.91 | -$0.52 | 62% 13833-8580 (22413) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $15.14 | $14.83 | -$0.32 | 45% 1527-1832 (3359) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $6.85 | $6.88 | +$0.02 | 38% 1387-2298 (3685) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $2.7 | $2.71 | +$0.01 | 59% 218-153 (371) |
Invested
$44.16
Value
$44.32
PnL
+$0.16
Record
44%
2775-3595 (6370)
Invested
$29.43
Value
$28.91
PnL
-$0.52
Record
62%
13833-8580 (22413)
Invested
$15.14
Value
$14.83
PnL
-$0.32
Record
45%
1527-1832 (3359)
Invested
$6.85
Value
$6.88
PnL
+$0.02
Record
38%
1387-2298 (3685)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.71
PnL
+$0.01
Record
59%
218-153 (371)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.