Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on November 6?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 90¢ · $315 held · ends Nov 6

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$315.41

Combined PnL

-$18.52

Smart Money Entry

89.3¢ → 89.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$261.24

Total Shares285

Combined PnL+$0.88

Yes1 trader

Total Value$54.16

Total Shares451

Combined PnL-$19.4

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 90.2¢	$112.78	$113.13	+$0.34	47% 8497-9689 (18186)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 92.1¢	$71.02	$69.76	-$1.27	49% 8976-9501 (18477)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.4¢	$74.19	$54.16	-$19.4	53% 3933-3494 (7427)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 90¢	$23.09	$20.74	-$2.35	18% 4425-20750 (25175)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 79.5¢	$17.17	$19.22	+$2.05	76% 13050-4194 (17244)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 80.4¢	$37.25	$17.66	+$2.14	58% 20250-14870 (35120)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 89¢	$8.09	$8.27	+$0.18	54% 10281-8887 (19168)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 89¢	$9	$7.97	-$0.04	44% 2229-2873 (5102)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$4.67	$4.5	-$0.17	48% 764-838 (1602)

mildwindow27

Invested

$112.78

Value

$113.13

PnL

+$0.34

Record

47%

8497-9689 (18186)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$71.02

Value

$69.76

PnL

-$1.27

Record

49%

8976-9501 (18477)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.19

Value

$54.16

PnL

-$19.4

Record

53%

3933-3494 (7427)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$23.09

Value

$20.74

PnL

-$2.35

Record

18%

4425-20750 (25175)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$17.17

Value

$19.22

PnL

+$2.05

Record

76%

13050-4194 (17244)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$37.25

Value

$17.66

PnL

+$2.14

Record

58%

20250-14870 (35120)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$8.09

Value

$8.27

PnL

+$0.18

Record

54%

10281-8887 (19168)

123987456<$100

Invested

Value

$7.97

PnL

-$0.04

Record

44%

2229-2873 (5102)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$4.67

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.17

Record

48%

764-838 (1602)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.