Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on November 2?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$60.72

Smart Money Entry

97.6¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,861

Combined PnL+$38.22

Yes6 traders

Total Value$82.04

Total Shares389

Combined PnL-$98.94

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST stupid22	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$0.87	96% 635-29 (664)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$47.4	$61.94	+$14.54	38% 1387-2298 (3685)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 39.4¢	$18.24	$35.8	+$17.55	35% 554-1008 (1562)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 48.5¢	$76.2	$33.62	-$42.57	38% 680-1090 (1770)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 55.6¢	$32.88	$32.37	-$0.51	38% 751-1204 (1955)
GH ghorrockCTR	Yesavg 32.7¢	$114.58	$10.83	-$13.67	57% 17226-12892 (30118)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 33¢	$2.35	$7.12	+$4.77	35% 698-1270 (1968)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 64.9¢	$6.03	$6.52	+$0.49	53% 7522-6644 (14166)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.2¢	$16.92	$5.12	-$11.8	42% 938-1305 (2243)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.2¢	$20.17	$0.07	-$20.12	57% 2334-1766 (4100)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 29.3¢	$10.3	$0.04	-$10.27	56% 3732-2932 (6664)

stupid22

Invested

$1,747.95

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$0.87

Record

96%

635-29 (664)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$47.4

Value

$61.94

PnL

+$14.54

Record

38%

1387-2298 (3685)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$18.24

Value

$35.8

PnL

+$17.55

Record

35%

554-1008 (1562)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.2

Value

$33.62

PnL

-$42.57

Record

38%

680-1090 (1770)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.88

Value

$32.37

PnL

-$0.51

Record

38%

751-1204 (1955)

ghorrockCTR

Yes

Invested

$114.58

Value

$10.83

PnL

-$13.67

Record

57%

17226-12892 (30118)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$2.35

Value

$7.12

PnL

+$4.77

Record

35%

698-1270 (1968)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$6.03

Value

$6.52

PnL

+$0.49

Record

53%

7522-6644 (14166)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.92

Value

$5.12

PnL

-$11.8

Record

42%

938-1305 (2243)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.17

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$20.12

Record

57%

2334-1766 (4100)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.3

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$10.27

Record

56%

3732-2932 (6664)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.