Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 30?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 60¢ · $109 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$108.93
$6.32
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $76.29 | $70.73 | -$0.49 | 24% 285-894 (1179) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 58.4¢ | $14.1 | $17.14 | +$3.04 | 57% 13257-10098 (23355) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $11.4 | $14.2 | +$2.8 | 53% 6381-5587 (11968) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $5.89 | $6.86 | +$0.97 | 50% 1689-1672 (3361) |
Istaroth<$100Invested
$76.29
Value
$70.73
PnL
-$0.49
Record
24%
285-894 (1179)
Invested
$14.1
Value
$17.14
PnL
+$3.04
Record
57%
13257-10098 (23355)
Invested
$11.4
Value
$14.2
PnL
+$2.8
Record
53%
6381-5587 (11968)
Invested
$5.89
Value
$6.86
PnL
+$0.97
Record
50%
1689-1672 (3361)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.