Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 31?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $255 held · ends Oct 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$255

Combined PnL

$148.14

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$222.91

Total Shares523

Combined PnL+$138.91

No2 traders

Total Value$32.09

Total Shares31

Combined PnL+$9.23

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 14.9¢	$71.69	$220.97	+$149.28	59% 1805-1255 (3060)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 90¢	$20.2	$20	-$0.2	20% 312-1273 (1585)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 57.9¢	$16.42	$12.09	+$9.43	57% 13766-10533 (24299)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.6¢	$12.1	$1.53	-$10.23	53% 6540-5754 (12294)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.54	$0.4	-$0.14	32% 4436-9523 (13959)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$71.69

Value

$220.97

PnL

+$149.28

Record

59%

1805-1255 (3060)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$20.2

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.2

Record

20%

312-1273 (1585)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$16.42

Value

$12.09

PnL

+$9.43

Record

57%

13766-10533 (24299)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.1

Value

$1.53

PnL

-$10.23

Record

53%

6540-5754 (12294)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$0.14

Record

32%

4436-9523 (13959)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8186.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

8286.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.