Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Up (53%) · Up at 100¢ · $988 held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$988.25

Combined PnL

-$55.36

Smart Money Entry

70.3¢ → 100¢

+42% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$689.56

Total Shares728

Combined PnL-$43.41

Down7 traders

Total Value$120.45

Total Shares173

Combined PnL-$11.94

Up — 53%Down — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2	Upavg 59.3¢	$273.11	$286.37	+$13.26	51% 10690-10141 (20831)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 43.2¢	$122.66	$178.24	+$55.58	45% 40240-48232 (88472)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.2¢	$78.29	$140.3	+$62.01
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.3¢	$44.37	$37.94	-$6.43
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 82.1¢	$206.03	$175.24	-$30.79	48% 6746-7394 (14140)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 79.3¢	$160.93	$146.03	-$14.9	51% 12246-11736 (23982)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 83.5¢	$64.62	$53.24	-$11.38	55% 51661-42835 (94496)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 84¢	$47.69	$44.75	-$2.94	63% 42543-25276 (67819)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 55.9¢	$36.35	$32.5	-$3.85	58% 39867-28830 (68697)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 66.2¢	$25.4	$27.84	+$2.43	56% 60679-47194 (107873)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 64.6¢	$16.76	$19.33	+$2.58	49% 81117-84565 (165682)
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100	Downavg 51.7¢	$5.18	$5	-$0.17	30% 12233-28187 (40420)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Upavg 94¢	$4.7	$4.98	+$0.27	49% 10667-11322 (21989)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 78.2¢	$8.9	$3.55	-$3.56	65% 130470-70278 (200748)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 78.2¢	$5.55	$3.55	-$2	61% 98748-62704 (161452)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 29.4¢	$5.88	$3.5	-$2.38	58% 63423-46617 (110040)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 78.2¢	$5.12	$3.27	-$1.85	66% 130798-67676 (198474)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 19¢	$0.95	$0.88	-$0.08	61% 46204-29379 (75583)

ply-pm2

Invested

$273.11

Value

$286.37

PnL

+$13.26

Record

51%

10690-10141 (20831)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$122.66

Value

$178.24

PnL

+$55.58

Record

45%

40240-48232 (88472)

Both legs:

Up$78.2943.2¢+$62.01

Down$44.3726.3¢-$6.43

asdcaxz

Invested

$206.03

Value

$175.24

PnL

-$30.79

Record

48%

6746-7394 (14140)

blue.birds

Invested

$160.93

Value

$146.03

PnL

-$14.9

Record

51%

12246-11736 (23982)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$64.62

Value

$53.24

PnL

-$11.38

Record

55%

51661-42835 (94496)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$47.69

Value

$44.75

PnL

-$2.94

Record

63%

42543-25276 (67819)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$36.35

Value

$32.5

PnL

-$3.85

Record

58%

39867-28830 (68697)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$25.4

Value

$27.84

PnL

+$2.43

Record

56%

60679-47194 (107873)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$16.76

Value

$19.33

PnL

+$2.58

Record

49%

81117-84565 (165682)

HcrystallashCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.18

Value

PnL

-$0.17

Record

30%

12233-28187 (40420)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.27

Record

49%

10667-11322 (21989)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.9

Value

$3.55

PnL

-$3.56

Record

65%

130470-70278 (200748)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.55

Value

$3.55

PnL

-$2

Record

61%

98748-62704 (161452)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$5.88

Value

$3.5

PnL

-$2.38

Record

58%

63423-46617 (110040)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.12

Value

$3.27

PnL

-$1.85

Record

66%

130798-67676 (198474)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$0.95

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$0.08

Record

61%

46204-29379 (75583)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.