Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET
Resolved Down. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
11
Down 36%
2 arb excluded
$687.81
-$117.86
Smart Money Signal
4 of 11 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 pspspsps5ARB<$100 | Downavg 62.2¢ | $220.66 | $180.29 | -$40.37 | 45% 40240-48232 (88472) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62.2¢ | $112.22 | $180.29 | +$68.07 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66.4¢ | $108.44 | — | -$108.44 | |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 62.6¢ | $181.94 | $162.53 | -$19.41 | 51% 10690-10141 (20831) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 80.8¢ | $118.73 | $140.42 | +$21.69 | 55% 51661-42835 (94496) |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Upavg 37.9¢ | $86.43 | $99.88 | +$13.45 | 48% 6746-7394 (14140) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 26.1¢ | $26.09 | $99.88 | +$73.79 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.9¢ | $60.34 | — | -$60.34 | |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 70.4¢ | $80.56 | $72.69 | -$7.87 | 51% 12246-11736 (23982) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 70.1¢ | $40.69 | — | -$40.69 | 58% 63423-46617 (110040) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 81.2¢ | $41.02 | — | -$41.02 | 49% 81117-84565 (165682) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 72.4¢ | $14.49 | — | -$14.49 | 61% 46204-29379 (75583) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 32.8¢ | $20.98 | — | -$20.98 | 63% 42543-25276 (67819) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 53.5¢ | $17.12 | $32 | +$14.88 | 58% 39867-28830 (68697) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $5.48 | — | -$5.48 | 61% 98748-62704 (161452) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 39.6¢ | $2.24 | — | -$2.24 | 65% 130470-70278 (200748) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 40.1¢ | $2.24 | — | -$2.24 | 66% 130798-67676 (198474) |
pspspsps5ARB<$100Invested
$220.66
Value
$180.29
PnL
-$40.37
Record
45%
40240-48232 (88472)
Both legs:
Invested
$181.94
Value
$162.53
PnL
-$19.41
Record
51%
10690-10141 (20831)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$118.73
Value
$140.42
PnL
+$21.69
Record
55%
51661-42835 (94496)
Invested
$86.43
Value
$99.88
PnL
+$13.45
Record
48%
6746-7394 (14140)
Both legs:
Invested
$80.56
Value
$72.69
PnL
-$7.87
Record
51%
12246-11736 (23982)
Invested
$40.69
Value
—
PnL
-$40.69
Record
58%
63423-46617 (110040)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$41.02
Value
—
PnL
-$41.02
Record
49%
81117-84565 (165682)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$14.49
Value
—
PnL
-$14.49
Record
61%
46204-29379 (75583)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$20.98
Value
—
PnL
-$20.98
Record
63%
42543-25276 (67819)
Invested
$17.12
Value
$32
PnL
+$14.88
Record
58%
39867-28830 (68697)
Invested
$5.48
Value
—
PnL
-$5.48
Record
61%
98748-62704 (161452)
Invested
$2.24
Value
—
PnL
-$2.24
Record
65%
130470-70278 (200748)
Invested
$2.24
Value
—
PnL
-$2.24
Record
66%
130798-67676 (198474)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
pspspsps5
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Down — $162.53
MayorMamdani
Down — $140.42
asdcaxz
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
Down — $72.69
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp — $0
OhioRiskManagement
CTRUp — $0
G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp — $0
ohioism
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $32