Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Down (53%) · Down at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 53%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$39.74

Smart Money Entry

61¢ → 99.5¢

+63% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 15 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$317.54

Total Shares336

Combined PnL+$87.06

Up7 traders

Total Value$222.61

Total Shares535

Combined PnL-$47.32

Down — 53%Up — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 54.2¢	$280.39	$307.48	+$27.09	48% 6746-7394 (14140)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.2¢	$175.6	$244.58	+$68.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.8¢	$104.79	$62.89	-$41.9
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 70.5¢	$308.79	$228.4	-$80.4	45% 40240-48232 (88472)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.7¢	$147.7	$149.57	+$1.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.5¢	$161.1	$78.82	-$82.27
MayorMamdani	Downavg 69¢	$100.97	$125.92	+$24.94	55% 51661-42835 (94496)
PL ply-pm2CTR	Upavg 27.1¢	$119.63	$116.18	-$3.45	51% 10690-10141 (20831)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 30.7¢	$19.68	$41.22	+$21.54	51% 12246-11736 (23982)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 50¢	$19	$37.81	+$18.81	55% 50268-41869 (92137)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 51¢	$19.38	$37.81	+$18.43	55% 52367-42838 (95205)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 93.5¢	$40.66	$32.85	-$7.81	74% 105140-37106 (142246)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 55.5¢	$34.95	$31.5	-$3.45	58% 39867-28830 (68697)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$13.4	$25.87	+$12.47	55% 51720-42173 (93893)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 52.8¢	$26.79	$25.35	-$1.44	49% 81117-84565 (165682)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 71.8¢	$50.26	$20.65	-$29.61	56% 60679-47194 (107873)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 36.8¢	$12.64	$13.45	+$0.81	61% 46204-29379 (75583)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 48.5¢	$9.71	$10	+$0.29	58% 63423-46617 (110040)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 40.7¢	$9.82	$8.32	-$1.5	65% 114714-61743 (176457)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 80.4¢	$15.84	$7.16	-$8.68	66% 130798-67676 (198474)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 44.2¢	$7.68	$6.07	-$1.6	65% 130470-70278 (200748)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$280.39

Value

$307.48

PnL

+$27.09

Record

48%

6746-7394 (14140)

Both legs:

Down$175.654.2¢+$68.99

Up$104.7940.8¢-$41.9

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$308.79

Value

$228.4

PnL

-$80.4

Record

45%

40240-48232 (88472)

Both legs:

Down$147.764.7¢+$1.88

Up$161.170.5¢-$82.27

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$100.97

Value

$125.92

PnL

+$24.94

Record

55%

51661-42835 (94496)

ply-pm2CTR

Invested

$119.63

Value

$116.18

PnL

-$3.45

Record

51%

10690-10141 (20831)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$19.68

Value

$41.22

PnL

+$21.54

Record

51%

12246-11736 (23982)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$19

Value

$37.81

PnL

+$18.81

Record

55%

50268-41869 (92137)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$19.38

Value

$37.81

PnL

+$18.43

Record

55%

52367-42838 (95205)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$40.66

Value

$32.85

PnL

-$7.81

Record

74%

105140-37106 (142246)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$34.95

Value

$31.5

PnL

-$3.45

Record

58%

39867-28830 (68697)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$13.4

Value

$25.87

PnL

+$12.47

Record

55%

51720-42173 (93893)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$26.79

Value

$25.35

PnL

-$1.44

Record

49%

81117-84565 (165682)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$50.26

Value

$20.65

PnL

-$29.61

Record

56%

60679-47194 (107873)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$12.64

Value

$13.45

PnL

+$0.81

Record

61%

46204-29379 (75583)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$9.71

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.29

Record

58%

63423-46617 (110040)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$9.82

Value

$8.32

PnL

-$1.5

Record

65%

114714-61743 (176457)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$15.84

Value

$7.16

PnL

-$8.68

Record

66%

130798-67676 (198474)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$7.68

Value

$6.07

PnL

-$1.6

Record

65%

130470-70278 (200748)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 15 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.