Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET

13 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Down (93%) · Down at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 93%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$20.71

Smart Money Entry

73.1¢ → 100¢

+37% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,564

Combined PnL+$21.97

Up1 trader

Total Value$28.77

Total Shares54

Combined PnL-$1.26

Down — 93%Up — 7%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 52.1¢	$478.23	$571.56	+$93.33	51% 10700-10150 (20850)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 78.4¢	$256.59	$272.3	+$15.72	48% 6777-7423 (14200)
pspspsps5	Downavg 90.1¢	$267.9	$225.93	-$41.97	45% 40271-48253 (88524)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 86.5¢	$167	$144.44	-$22.56	51% 12277-11765 (24042)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 94¢	$92.18	$87.59	-$4.59	55% 51918-43034 (94952)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 92.5¢	$46.26	$43.75	-$2.51	74% 105153-37109 (142262)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 92.5¢	$46.26	$43.75	-$2.51	61% 46226-29401 (75627)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 92.5¢	$31.97	$29.42	-$2.56	61% 98777-62719 (161496)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 53.7¢	$30.04	$28.77	-$1.26	49% 81148-84583 (165731)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 62.5¢	$34.99	$27.99	-$7	58% 39891-28840 (68731)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 92.5¢	$25.6	$22.68	-$2.93	63% 42565-25291 (67856)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 78.4¢	$19.34	$19.64	+$0.3	66% 130853-67700 (198553)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 92.5¢	$18.5	$18.3	-$0.2	58% 63445-46638 (110083)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 79.2¢	$10.21	$9.5	-$0.56	65% 130517-70309 (200826)

ply-pm2

Down

Invested

$478.23

Value

$571.56

PnL

+$93.33

Record

51%

10700-10150 (20850)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$256.59

Value

$272.3

PnL

+$15.72

Record

48%

6777-7423 (14200)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$267.9

Value

$225.93

PnL

-$41.97

Record

45%

40271-48253 (88524)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$167

Value

$144.44

PnL

-$22.56

Record

51%

12277-11765 (24042)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$92.18

Value

$87.59

PnL

-$4.59

Record

55%

51918-43034 (94952)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$46.26

Value

$43.75

PnL

-$2.51

Record

74%

105153-37109 (142262)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$46.26

Value

$43.75

PnL

-$2.51

Record

61%

46226-29401 (75627)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$31.97

Value

$29.42

PnL

-$2.56

Record

61%

98777-62719 (161496)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$30.04

Value

$28.77

PnL

-$1.26

Record

49%

81148-84583 (165731)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$34.99

Value

$27.99

PnL

-$7

Record

58%

39891-28840 (68731)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$25.6

Value

$22.68

PnL

-$2.93

Record

63%

42565-25291 (67856)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$19.34

Value

$19.64

PnL

+$0.3

Record

66%

130853-67700 (198553)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$18.5

Value

$18.3

PnL

-$0.2

Record

58%

63445-46638 (110083)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$10.21

Value

$9.5

PnL

-$0.56

Record

65%

130517-70309 (200826)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.