Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (75%) · Up at 89¢ · $171 held · ends Nov 7

Up89¢Down11¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

Total Value

$170.54

Combined PnL

-$16.34

Smart Money Entry

72.4¢ → 88.5¢

+22% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up89%

Down12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$155

Total Shares219

Combined PnL-$3.9

Down2 traders

Total Value$15.55

Total Shares98

Combined PnL-$12.44

Up — 75%Down — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 81.3¢	$74.94	$77.92	+$2.98	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 58.3¢	$46.21	$39.67	-$6.55	58% 39817-28803 (68620)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 84.8¢	$23.49	$24.23	+$0.74	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 27.8¢	$14.94	$10.47	-$4.47	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 76.1¢	$7.61	$8.05	+$0.44	49% 81012-84457 (165469)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 29.6¢	$13.05	$5.07	-$7.97	51% 10575-10032 (20607)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Upavg 53.7¢	$2.82	$2.63	-$0.2	30% 12192-28156 (40348)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 76.3¢	$3.82	$2.5	-$1.32	58% 63329-46540 (109869)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$74.94

Value

$77.92

PnL

+$2.98

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$46.21

Value

$39.67

PnL

-$6.55

Record

58%

39817-28803 (68620)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$23.49

Value

$24.23

PnL

+$0.74

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.94

Value

$10.47

PnL

-$4.47

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$7.61

Value

$8.05

PnL

+$0.44

Record

49%

81012-84457 (165469)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$13.05

Value

$5.07

PnL

-$7.97

Record

51%

10575-10032 (20607)

Hcrystallash<$100

Invested

$2.82

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$0.2

Record

30%

12192-28156 (40348)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$3.82

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$1.32

Record

58%

63329-46540 (109869)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.2%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.